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It is not surprising that in talking about uncertainty we should lean heavily on facts, just as the court of law does when interrogating witnesses. Facts form a sort of bedrock on which we can build the shifting sands of uncertainty.
Dennis Lindley
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Dennis Lindley
Age: 90 †
Born: 1923
Born: July 25
Died: 2013
Died: December 14
Statistician
Dennis Victor Lindley
Law
Shifting
Talking
Surprising
Facts
Uncertainty
Interrogating
Form
Sand
Sands
Doe
Witness
Bedrock
Court
Witnesses
Build
Heavily
Sort
Lean
More quotes by Dennis Lindley
Whatever way uncertainty is approached, probability is the only sound way to think about it.
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Generally there is Stigler's law of eponymy that says that a scientific notion is never attributed to the right person in particular, the law is not due to Stigler.
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Almost all thinking people agree that you should not have probability 1 (or 0) for any event, other than one demonstrable by logic, like 2 x 2 = 4.
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Uncertainty is a personal matter it is not the uncertainty but your uncertainty.
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In my opinion, it helps enormously to know why something is true, rather than being told it is true, for why should you believe me? Never believe anything on the authority of a single person but seek confirmation - and reason is the best confirmation.
Dennis Lindley