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That's one of the real dangers of leader selection in many organizations: leaders are selected for overconfidence.

Daniel Kahneman

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Daniel Kahneman
Age: 90
Born: 1934
Born: March 5
Economist
Psychologist
University Teacher
Tel Aviv
Israel
D Kahneman
Organization
Danger
Leader
Many
Selected
Real
Dangers
Organizations
Selection
Leaders

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The amount of success it takes for leaders to become overconfident isn't terribly large.
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Individual investors predictably flock to stocks in companies that are in the news.
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Optimism is normal, but some fortunate people are more optimistic than the rest of us. If you are genetically endowed with an optimistic bias, you hardly need to be told that you are a lucky person - you already feel fortunate.
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Intuitive diagnosis is reliable when people have a lot of relevant feedback. But people are very often willing to make intuitive diagnoses even when they're very likely to be wrong.
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Groups tend to be more extreme than individuals.
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Political columnists and sports pundits are rewarded for being overconfident.
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It's nonsense to say money doesn't buy happiness, but people exaggerate the extent to which more money can buy more happiness.
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After a crisis we tell ourselves we understand why it happened and maintain the illusion that the world is understandable. In fact, we should accept the world is incomprehensible much of the time.
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True intuitive expertise is learned from prolonged experience with good feedback on mistakes.
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When people think of the outcomes of their decisions, they think much more short term than that. They think in terms of gains and losses.
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Overconfidence is a powerful source of illusions, primarily determined by the quality and coherence of the story that you can construct, not by its validity.
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The premise of this book is that it is easier to recognize other people's mistakes than your own.
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It is only a slight exaggeration to say that happiness is the experience of spending time with people you love and who love you.
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If people can construct a simple and coherent story, they will feel confident regardless of how well grounded it is in reality.
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We associate leadership with decisiveness. That perception of leadership pushes people to make decisions fairly quickly, lest they be seen as dithering and indecisive.
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