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That's one of the real dangers of leader selection in many organizations: leaders are selected for overconfidence.

Daniel Kahneman

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Daniel Kahneman
Age: 90
Born: 1934
Born: March 5
Economist
Psychologist
University Teacher
Tel Aviv
Israel
D Kahneman
Real
Dangers
Organizations
Selection
Leaders
Organization
Danger
Leader
Many
Selected

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We are far too willing to reject the belief that much of what we see in life is random.
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When everybody in a group is susceptible to similar biases, groups are inferior to individuals, because groups tend to be more extreme than individuals.
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Adaptation seems to be, to a substantial extent, a process of reallocating your attention.
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Slow thinking has the feeling of something you do. It's deliberate.
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Employers who violate rules of fairness are punished by reduced productivity, and merchants who follow unfair pricing policies can expect to lose sales.
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... sometimes when you are asked a question that is difficult, the mind doesn't stay silent if it doesn't have the answer. The mind produces something, and what it produces very characteristically is the answer to an easier but related question.
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The planning fallacy is that you make a plan, which is usually a best-case scenario. Then you assume that the outcome will follow your plan, even when you should know better.
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Some memories come with a very compelling sense of truth about them. And that happens to be the case even with memories that are not true.
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The confidence people have in their beliefs is not a measure of the quality of evidence but of the coherence of the story the mind has managed to construct.
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I used to hold a unitary view, in which I proposed that only experienced happiness matters, and that life satisfaction is a fallible estimate of true happiness.
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Experienced happiness refers to your feelings, to how happy you are as you live your life. In contrast, the satisfaction of the remembering self refers to your feelings when you think about your life.
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Alternative descriptions of the same reality evoke different emotions and different associations.
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In a rising market, enough of your bad ideas will pay off so that you'll never learn that you should have fewer ideas.
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Intelligence is not only the ability to reason it is also the ability to find relevant material in memory and to deploy attention when needed.
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Often, the most enjoyable part of an activity is the anticipation.
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Money does not buy you happiness, but lack of money certainly buys you misery.
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Most successful pundits are selected for being opinionated, because it's interesting, and the penalties for incorrect predictions are negligible. You can make predictions, and a year later people won't remember them.
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It doesn't take many observations to think you've spotted a trend, and it's probably not a trend at all.
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All of us roughly know what memory is. I mean, memory is sort of the storage of the past. It's the storage of our personal experiences. It's a very big deal.
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Negotiations over a shrinking pie are especially difficult because they require an allocation of losses. People tend to be much more easygoing when they bargain over an expanding pie.
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