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That's one of the real dangers of leader selection in many organizations: leaders are selected for overconfidence.

Daniel Kahneman

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Daniel Kahneman
Age: 90
Born: 1934
Born: March 5
Economist
Psychologist
University Teacher
Tel Aviv
Israel
D Kahneman
Real
Dangers
Organizations
Selection
Leaders
Organization
Danger
Leader
Many
Selected

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Most people are highly optimistic most of the time.
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Odd as it may seem, I am my remembering self, and the experiencing self, who does my living, is like a stranger to me.
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One thing we have lost, that we had in the past, is a sense of progress, that things are getting better. There is a sense of volatility, but not of progress.
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In essence, the optimistic style involves taking credit for successes but little blame for failures.
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The premise of this book is that it is easier to recognize other people's mistakes than your own.
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It's very easy for trusted companies to mislead naive customers, and life insurance companies are trusted.
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We associate leadership with decisiveness. That perception of leadership pushes people to make decisions fairly quickly, lest they be seen as dithering and indecisive.
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Money does not buy you happiness, but lack of money certainly buys you misery.
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Intuitive diagnosis is reliable when people have a lot of relevant feedback. But people are very often willing to make intuitive diagnoses even when they're very likely to be wrong.
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I have always emphasized the willingness to discard.
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Experts don't know exactly where the boundaries of their expertise are.
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The planning fallacy is that you make a plan, which is usually a best-case scenario. Then you assume that the outcome will follow your plan, even when you should know better.
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If people can construct a simple and coherent story, they will feel confident regardless of how well grounded it is in reality.
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If owning stocks is a long-term project for you, following their changes constantly is a very, very bad idea. It's the worst possible thing you can do, because people are so sensitive to short-term losses. If you count your money every day, you'll be miserable.
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You are more likely to learn something by finding surprises in your own behavior than by hearing surprising facts about people in general.
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The brain scientists are the wave of the future in the financial world. If you seek to maximize understanding, whether you're in academia or in the investment community, you'd better pay serious attention to them.
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Adaptation seems to be, to a substantial extent, a process of reallocating your attention.
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If you're going to be unreligious, it's likely going to be due to reflecting on it and finding some things that are hard to believe.
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I would not advise people to buy a car or house without making a list. You will probably improve your intuitions by making a list and then sleeping on it.
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All of us would be better investors if we just made fewer decisions.
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