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That's one of the real dangers of leader selection in many organizations: leaders are selected for overconfidence.

Daniel Kahneman

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Daniel Kahneman
Age: 90
Born: 1934
Born: March 5
Economist
Psychologist
University Teacher
Tel Aviv
Israel
D Kahneman
Organizations
Selection
Leaders
Organization
Danger
Leader
Many
Selected
Real
Dangers

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We have associations to things. We have, you know, we have associations to tables and to - and to dogs and to cats and to Harvard professors, and that's the way the mind works. It's an association machine.
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We are far too willing to reject the belief that much of what we see in life is random.
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Slow thinking has the feeling of something you do. It's deliberate.
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A large portion of the weekend effects is explained by differences in the amount of time spent with friends or family between weekends and weekdays.
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By their very nature, heuristic shortcuts will produce biases, and that is true for both humans and artificial intelligence, but the heuristics of AI are not necessarily the human ones.
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Courage is willingness to take the risk once you know the odds. Optimistic overconfidence means you are taking the risk because you don't know the odds. It's a big difference.
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Laziness is built deep into our nature.
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So your emotional state really has a lot to do with what you're thinking about and what you're paying attention to.
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Through some combination of culture and biology, our minds are intuitively receptive to religion.
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Except for some effects that I attribute mostly to age, my intuitive thinking is just as prone to overconfidence, extreme predictions, and the planning fallacy as it was before I made a study of these issues.
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The effort invested in 'getting it right' should be commensurate with the importance of the decision.
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You are more likely to learn something by finding surprises in your own behavior than by hearing surprising facts about people in general.
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Experienced happiness refers to your feelings, to how happy you are as you live your life. In contrast, the satisfaction of the remembering self refers to your feelings when you think about your life.
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In essence, the optimistic style involves taking credit for successes but little blame for failures.
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In a rising market, enough of your bad ideas will pay off so that you'll never learn that you should have fewer ideas.
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Divorced women, compared to married women, are less satisfied with their lives, which is not surprising. But they're actually more cheerful, when you look at the average mood they're in in the course of the day.
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I'm not a great believer in self-help.
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People like leaders who look like they are dominant, optimistic, friendly to their friends, and quick on the trigger when it comes to enemies. They like boldness and despise the appearance of timidity and protracted doubt.
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It is the consistency of the information that matters for a good story, not its completeness. Indeed, you will often find that knowing little makes it easier to fit everything you know into a coherent pattern.
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Establish a closing ritual. Know when to stop working. Try to end each work day the same way, too. Straighten up your desk. Back up your computer. Make a list of what you need to do tomorrow.
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