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The amount of success it takes for leaders to become overconfident isn't terribly large.

Daniel Kahneman

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Daniel Kahneman
Age: 90
Born: 1934
Born: March 5
Economist
Psychologist
University Teacher
Tel Aviv
Israel
D Kahneman
Large
Amount
Leader
Takes
Success
Become
Terribly
Leaders

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Divorced women, compared to married women, are less satisfied with their lives, which is not surprising. But they're actually more cheerful, when you look at the average mood they're in in the course of the day.
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There are some conditions where you have to trust your intuition.
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Managers think of themselves as captains of a ship on a stormy sea. Risk for them is danger, but they are fighting it, very controlled.
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Courage is willingness to take the risk once you know the odds. Optimistic overconfidence means you are taking the risk because you don't know the odds. It's a big difference.
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So your emotional state really has a lot to do with what you're thinking about and what you're paying attention to.
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Groups tend to be more extreme than individuals.
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People are really happier with friends than they are with their families or their spouse or their child.
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People are very good [at] thinking about agents. The mind is set really beautifully to think about agents. Agents have traits. Agents have behaviors. We understand agents. We form global impression of their personalities. We are really not very good at remembering sentences where the subject of the sentence is an abstract notion.
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When action is needed, optimism, even of the mildly delusional variety, may be a good thing.
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Negotiations over a shrinking pie are especially difficult because they require an allocation of losses. People tend to be much more easygoing when they bargain over an expanding pie.
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People exaggerate their confidence in their plans - something we call the planning fallacy... The existence of the plan tends to induce overconfidence.
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Individual investors predictably flock to stocks in companies that are in the news.
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Psychologists really aim to be scientists, white-coat stuff, with elaborate statistics, running experiments.
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If individuals are rational, there is no need to protect them against their own choices.
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Most people are highly optimistic most of the time.
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Odd as it may seem, I am my remembering self, and the experiencing self, who does my living, is like a stranger to me.
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The evidence is unequivocal, there's a great deal more luck than skill in people getting very rich.
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We are far too willing to reject the belief that much of what we see in life is random.
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