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The amount of success it takes for leaders to become overconfident isn't terribly large.
Daniel Kahneman
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Daniel Kahneman
Age: 90
Born: 1934
Born: March 5
Economist
Psychologist
University Teacher
Tel Aviv
Israel
D Kahneman
Become
Terribly
Leaders
Large
Amount
Leader
Takes
Success
More quotes by Daniel Kahneman
There are domains in which expertise is not possible. Stock picking is a good example. And in long-term political strategic forecasting, it's been shown that experts are just not better than a dice-throwing monkey.
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We can be blind to the obvious, and we are also blind to our blindness.
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There are some conditions where you have to trust your intuition.
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You're surprised by something, but you don't really know what surprised you you recognize someone, but you don't really know what cues cause you to recognize that person.
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Overconfidence is a powerful source of illusions, primarily determined by the quality and coherence of the story that you can construct, not by its validity.
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... sometimes when you are asked a question that is difficult, the mind doesn't stay silent if it doesn't have the answer. The mind produces something, and what it produces very characteristically is the answer to an easier but related question.
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This is the essence of intuitive heuristics: when faced with a difficult question, we often answer an easier one instead, usually without noticing the substitution.
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Friends are sometimes a big help when they share your feelings. In the context of decisions, the friends who will serve you best are those who understand your feelings but are not overly impressed by them.
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What happens with fear is that probability doesn't matter very much. That is, once I have raised the possibility that something terrible can happen to your child, even though the possibility is remote, you may find it very difficult to think of anything else. Emotion becomes dominant.
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It's very easy for trusted companies to mislead naive customers, and life insurance companies are trusted.
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There's a tendency to look at investments in isolation. Investors focus on the risk of individual securities.
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When you look at the books about well-being, you see one word - it's happiness. People do not distinguish.
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The confidence that individuals have in their beliefs depends mostly on the quality of the story they can tell about what they see, even if they see little.
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Most of the moments of our life - and I calculated, you know, the psychological present is said to be about three seconds long that means that, you know, in a life there are about 600 million of them in a month, there are about 600,000 - most of them don't leave a trace.
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Odd as it may seem, I am my remembering self, and the experiencing self, who does my living, is like a stranger to me.
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People exaggerate their confidence in their plans - something we call the planning fallacy... The existence of the plan tends to induce overconfidence.
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People should be conscious of the large contribution made by anything that gets people together easily in the reduction of loneliness and emotional well-being.
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After a crisis we tell ourselves we understand why it happened and maintain the illusion that the world is understandable. In fact, we should accept the world is incomprehensible much of the time.
Daniel Kahneman
We are very influenced by completely automatic things that we have no control over, and we don't know we're doing it.
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Experienced happiness refers to your feelings, to how happy you are as you live your life. In contrast, the satisfaction of the remembering self refers to your feelings when you think about your life.
Daniel Kahneman
