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The amount of success it takes for leaders to become overconfident isn't terribly large.
Daniel Kahneman
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Daniel Kahneman
Age: 90
Born: 1934
Born: March 5
Economist
Psychologist
University Teacher
Tel Aviv
Israel
D Kahneman
Terribly
Leaders
Large
Amount
Leader
Takes
Success
Become
More quotes by Daniel Kahneman
My interest in well-being evolved from my interest in decision making - from raising the question of whether people know what they will want in the future and whether the things that people want for themselves will make them happy.
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This is the essence of intuitive heuristics: when faced with a difficult question, we often answer an easier one instead, usually without noticing the substitution.
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Odd as it may seem, I am my remembering self, and the experiencing self, who does my living, is like a stranger to me.
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We have no reason to expect the quality of intuition to improve with the importance of the problem. Perhaps the contrary: high-stake problems are likely to involve powerful emotions and strong impulses to action.
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That's one of the real dangers of leader selection in many organizations: leaders are selected for overconfidence.
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Through some combination of culture and biology, our minds are intuitively receptive to religion.
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An individual who expresses high confidence probably has a good story, which may or may not be true.
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People who are cognitively busy are also more likely to make selfish choices, use sexist language, and make superficial judgments in social situations.
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If owning stocks is a long-term project for you, following their changes constantly is a very, very bad idea. It's the worst possible thing you can do, because people are so sensitive to short-term losses. If you count your money every day, you'll be miserable.
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It was always assumed I would be a professor. I grew up thinking it.
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There is a huge wave of interest in happiness among researchers. There is a lot of happiness coaching. Everybody would like to make people happier.
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Employers who violate rules of fairness are punished by reduced productivity, and merchants who follow unfair pricing policies can expect to lose sales.
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All of us would be better investors if we just made fewer decisions.
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We have associations to things. We have, you know, we have associations to tables and to - and to dogs and to cats and to Harvard professors, and that's the way the mind works. It's an association machine.
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When people believe a conclusion is true, they are also very likely to believe arguments that appear to support it, even when these arguments are unsound.
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Intelligence is not only the ability to reason it is also the ability to find relevant material in memory and to deploy attention when needed.
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Acquisition of skills requires a regular environment, an adequate opportunity to practice, and rapid and unequivocal feedback about the correctness of thoughts and actions.
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People exaggerate their confidence in their plans - something we call the planning fallacy... The existence of the plan tends to induce overconfidence.
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Establish a closing ritual. Know when to stop working. Try to end each work day the same way, too. Straighten up your desk. Back up your computer. Make a list of what you need to do tomorrow.
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The illusion that we understand the past fosters overconfidence in our ability to predict the future.
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