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If people can construct a simple and coherent story, they will feel confident regardless of how well grounded it is in reality.

Daniel Kahneman

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Daniel Kahneman
Age: 90
Born: 1934
Born: March 5
Economist
Psychologist
University Teacher
Tel Aviv
Israel
D Kahneman
Feels
Confident
People
Story
Simple
Reality
Coherent
Stories
Construct
Wells
Constructs
Well
Grounded
Feel
Regardless

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The concept of loss aversion is certainly the most significant contribution of psychology to behavioral economics.
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We have associations to things. We have, you know, we have associations to tables and to - and to dogs and to cats and to Harvard professors, and that's the way the mind works. It's an association machine.
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A large portion of the weekend effects is explained by differences in the amount of time spent with friends or family between weekends and weekdays.
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Money does not buy you happiness, but lack of money certainly buys you misery.
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True intuitive expertise is learned from prolonged experience with good feedback on mistakes.
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Employers who violate rules of fairness are punished by reduced productivity, and merchants who follow unfair pricing policies can expect to lose sales.
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In a rising market, enough of your bad ideas will pay off so that you'll never learn that you should have fewer ideas.
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Intelligence is not only the ability to reason it is also the ability to find relevant material in memory and to deploy attention when needed.
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When people believe a conclusion is true, they are also very likely to believe arguments that appear to support it, even when these arguments are unsound.
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People should be conscious of the large contribution made by anything that gets people together easily in the reduction of loneliness and emotional well-being.
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Groups tend to be more extreme than individuals.
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Poverty is clearly one source of emotional suffering, but there are others, like loneliness. A policy to reduce the loneliness of the elderly would certainly reduce suffering.
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Some memories come with a very compelling sense of truth about them. And that happens to be the case even with memories that are not true.
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Managers think of themselves as captains of a ship on a stormy sea. Risk for them is danger, but they are fighting it, very controlled.
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We have no reason to expect the quality of intuition to improve with the importance of the problem. Perhaps the contrary: high-stake problems are likely to involve powerful emotions and strong impulses to action.
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It is the consistency of the information that matters for a good story, not its completeness. Indeed, you will often find that knowing little makes it easier to fit everything you know into a coherent pattern.
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There are domains in which expertise is not possible. Stock picking is a good example. And in long-term political strategic forecasting, it's been shown that experts are just not better than a dice-throwing monkey.
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Survival prospects are poor for an animal that is not suspicious of novelty.
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Question: So investors shouldn't delude themselves about beating the market? Answer: They're just not going to do it. It's just not going to happen.
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People who are cognitively busy are also more likely to make selfish choices, use sexist language, and make superficial judgments in social situations.
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