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If people can construct a simple and coherent story, they will feel confident regardless of how well grounded it is in reality.
Daniel Kahneman
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Daniel Kahneman
Age: 90
Born: 1934
Born: March 5
Economist
Psychologist
University Teacher
Tel Aviv
Israel
D Kahneman
Wells
Constructs
Well
Grounded
Feel
Regardless
Feels
Confident
People
Story
Simple
Reality
Coherent
Stories
Construct
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If owning stocks is a long-term project for you, following their changes constantly is a very, very bad idea. It's the worst possible thing you can do, because people are so sensitive to short-term losses. If you count your money every day, you'll be miserable.
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Managers think of themselves as captains of a ship on a stormy sea. Risk for them is danger, but they are fighting it, very controlled.
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Most things that couples disagree upon aren't worth more than a day's combat.
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Except for some effects that I attribute mostly to age, my intuitive thinking is just as prone to overconfidence, extreme predictions, and the planning fallacy as it was before I made a study of these issues.
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I'm not a great believer in self-help.
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It's very easy for trusted companies to mislead naive customers, and life insurance companies are trusted.
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