Quote

Overconfidence is a powerful source of illusions, primarily determined by the quality and coherence of the story that you can construct, not by its validity.

Daniel Kahneman

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Daniel Kahneman
Age: 90
Born: 1934
Born: March 5
Economist
Psychologist
University Teacher
Tel Aviv
Israel
D Kahneman
Source
Coherence
Quality
Validity
Powerful
Construct
Story
Constructs
Stories
Illusions
Primarily
Determined
Illusion

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The premise of this book is that it is easier to recognize other people's mistakes than your own.
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It is only a slight exaggeration to say that happiness is the experience of spending time with people you love and who love you.
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Experienced happiness refers to your feelings, to how happy you are as you live your life. In contrast, the satisfaction of the remembering self refers to your feelings when you think about your life.
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I would not advise people to buy a car or house without making a list. You will probably improve your intuitions by making a list and then sleeping on it.
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We are far too willing to reject the belief that much of what we see in life is random.
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Optimism is normal, but some fortunate people are more optimistic than the rest of us. If you are genetically endowed with an optimistic bias, you hardly need to be told that you are a lucky person - you already feel fortunate.
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When you look at the books about well-being, you see one word - it's happiness. People do not distinguish.
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The concept of happiness has to be reorganised.
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Most successful pundits are selected for being opinionated, because it's interesting, and the penalties for incorrect predictions are negligible. You can make predictions, and a year later people won't remember them.
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Odd as it may seem, I am my remembering self, and the experiencing self, who does my living, is like a stranger to me.
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If individuals are rational, there is no need to protect them against their own choices.
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That's one of the real dangers of leader selection in many organizations: leaders are selected for overconfidence.
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In essence, the optimistic style involves taking credit for successes but little blame for failures.
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It is the consistency of the information that matters for a good story, not its completeness. Indeed, you will often find that knowing little makes it easier to fit everything you know into a coherent pattern.
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People exaggerate their confidence in their plans - something we call the planning fallacy... The existence of the plan tends to induce overconfidence.
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