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You should not take your intuitions at face value.

Daniel Kahneman

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Daniel Kahneman
Age: 90
Born: 1934
Born: March 5
Economist
Psychologist
University Teacher
Tel Aviv
Israel
D Kahneman
Face
Values
Faces
Take
Intuitions
Intuition
Value

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The illusion that we understand the past fosters overconfidence in our ability to predict the future.
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... sometimes when you are asked a question that is difficult, the mind doesn't stay silent if it doesn't have the answer. The mind produces something, and what it produces very characteristically is the answer to an easier but related question.
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We have no reason to expect the quality of intuition to improve with the importance of the problem. Perhaps the contrary: high-stake problems are likely to involve powerful emotions and strong impulses to action.
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We can't live in a state of perpetual doubt, so we make up the best story possible and we live as if the story were true.
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There are some conditions where you have to trust your intuition.
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Alternative descriptions of the same reality evoke different emotions and different associations.
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The confidence that individuals have in their beliefs depends mostly on the quality of the story they can tell about what they see, even if they see little.
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Most things that couples disagree upon aren't worth more than a day's combat.
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If individuals are rational, there is no need to protect them against their own choices.
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Optimism is normal, but some fortunate people are more optimistic than the rest of us. If you are genetically endowed with an optimistic bias, you hardly need to be told that you are a lucky person - you already feel fortunate.
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The amount of success it takes for leaders to become overconfident isn't terribly large.
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That's one of the real dangers of leader selection in many organizations: leaders are selected for overconfidence.
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