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Often, the most enjoyable part of an activity is the anticipation.

Daniel Kahneman

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Daniel Kahneman
Age: 90
Born: 1934
Born: March 5
Economist
Psychologist
University Teacher
Tel Aviv
Israel
D Kahneman
Anticipation
Activity
Often
Part
Enjoyable

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The effort invested in 'getting it right' should be commensurate with the importance of the decision.
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So your emotional state really has a lot to do with what you're thinking about and what you're paying attention to.
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You are more likely to learn something by finding surprises in your own behavior than by hearing surprising facts about people in general.
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Hindsight bias makes surprises vanish.
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You're surprised by something, but you don't really know what surprised you you recognize someone, but you don't really know what cues cause you to recognize that person.
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Most successful pundits are selected for being opinionated, because it's interesting, and the penalties for incorrect predictions are negligible. You can make predictions, and a year later people won't remember them.
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Political columnists and sports pundits are rewarded for being overconfident.
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