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An individual who expresses high confidence probably has a good story, which may or may not be true.

Daniel Kahneman

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Daniel Kahneman
Age: 90
Born: 1934
Born: March 5
Economist
Psychologist
University Teacher
Tel Aviv
Israel
D Kahneman
High
Story
Individual
True
Stories
May
Expresses
Good
Confidence
Probably

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People like leaders who look like they are dominant, optimistic, friendly to their friends, and quick on the trigger when it comes to enemies. They like boldness and despise the appearance of timidity and protracted doubt.
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We can be blind to the obvious, and we are also blind to our blindness.
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If you're going to be unreligious, it's likely going to be due to reflecting on it and finding some things that are hard to believe.
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Optimistic people play a disproportionate role in shaping our lives. Their decisions make a difference they are inventors, entrepreneurs, political and military leaders - not average people. They got to where they are by seeking challenges and taking risks.
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My interest in well-being evolved from my interest in decision making - from raising the question of whether people know what they will want in the future and whether the things that people want for themselves will make them happy.
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So your emotional state really has a lot to do with what you're thinking about and what you're paying attention to.
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Political columnists and sports pundits are rewarded for being overconfident.
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All of us roughly know what memory is. I mean, memory is sort of the storage of the past. It's the storage of our personal experiences. It's a very big deal.
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When everybody in a group is susceptible to similar biases, groups are inferior to individuals, because groups tend to be more extreme than individuals.
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Optimism is normal, but some fortunate people are more optimistic than the rest of us. If you are genetically endowed with an optimistic bias, you hardly need to be told that you are a lucky person - you already feel fortunate.
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What happens with fear is that probability doesn't matter very much. That is, once I have raised the possibility that something terrible can happen to your child, even though the possibility is remote, you may find it very difficult to think of anything else. Emotion becomes dominant.
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Experts don't know exactly where the boundaries of their expertise are.
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When you look at the books about well-being, you see one word - it's happiness. People do not distinguish.
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The effort invested in 'getting it right' should be commensurate with the importance of the decision.
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In essence, the optimistic style involves taking credit for successes but little blame for failures.
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Negotiations over a shrinking pie are especially difficult because they require an allocation of losses. People tend to be much more easygoing when they bargain over an expanding pie.
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Divorced women, compared to married women, are less satisfied with their lives, which is not surprising. But they're actually more cheerful, when you look at the average mood they're in in the course of the day.
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People have little idea, by and large, of the investment world. They are convinced they have an advantage.
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Overconfidence is a powerful source of illusions, primarily determined by the quality and coherence of the story that you can construct, not by its validity.
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It doesn't take many observations to think you've spotted a trend, and it's probably not a trend at all.
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