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An individual who expresses high confidence probably has a good story, which may or may not be true.

Daniel Kahneman

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Daniel Kahneman
Age: 90
Born: 1934
Born: March 5
Economist
Psychologist
University Teacher
Tel Aviv
Israel
D Kahneman
Stories
May
Expresses
Good
Confidence
Probably
High
Story
Individual
True

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An investment said to have an 80% chance of success sounds far more attractive than one with a 20% chance of failure. The mind can't easily recognize that they are the same.
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If individuals are rational, there is no need to protect them against their own choices.
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It doesn't take many observations to think you've spotted a trend, and it's probably not a trend at all.
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Money does not buy you happiness, but lack of money certainly buys you misery.
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Optimistic people play a disproportionate role in shaping our lives. Their decisions make a difference they are inventors, entrepreneurs, political and military leaders - not average people. They got to where they are by seeking challenges and taking risks.
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The easiest way to increase happiness is to control your use of time.
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Employers who violate rules of fairness are punished by reduced productivity, and merchants who follow unfair pricing policies can expect to lose sales.
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We have no reason to expect the quality of intuition to improve with the importance of the problem. Perhaps the contrary: high-stake problems are likely to involve powerful emotions and strong impulses to action.
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Question: So investors shouldn't delude themselves about beating the market? Answer: They're just not going to do it. It's just not going to happen.
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The confidence that individuals have in their beliefs depends mostly on the quality of the story they can tell about what they see, even if they see little.
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People who are cognitively busy are also more likely to make selfish choices, use sexist language, and make superficial judgments in social situations.
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Experts don't know exactly where the boundaries of their expertise are.
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Political columnists and sports pundits are rewarded for being overconfident.
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Policy makers, like most people, normally feel that they already know all the psychology and all the sociology they are likely to need for their decisions. I don't think they are right, but that's the way it is.
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When people believe a conclusion is true, they are also very likely to believe arguments that appear to support it, even when these arguments are unsound.
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Alternative descriptions of the same reality evoke different emotions and different associations.
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The premise of this book is that it is easier to recognize other people's mistakes than your own.
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We are very influenced by completely automatic things that we have no control over, and we don't know we're doing it.
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The effort invested in 'getting it right' should be commensurate with the importance of the decision.
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People just hate the idea of losing. Any loss, even a small one, is just so terrible to contemplate that they compensate by buying insurance, including totally absurd policies like air travel.
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