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An individual who expresses high confidence probably has a good story, which may or may not be true.
Daniel Kahneman
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Daniel Kahneman
Age: 90
Born: 1934
Born: March 5
Economist
Psychologist
University Teacher
Tel Aviv
Israel
D Kahneman
May
Expresses
Good
Confidence
Probably
High
Story
Individual
True
Stories
More quotes by Daniel Kahneman
Alternative descriptions of the same reality evoke different emotions and different associations.
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All of us roughly know what memory is. I mean, memory is sort of the storage of the past. It's the storage of our personal experiences. It's a very big deal.
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Money does not buy you happiness, but lack of money certainly buys you misery.
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What happens with fear is that probability doesn't matter very much. That is, once I have raised the possibility that something terrible can happen to your child, even though the possibility is remote, you may find it very difficult to think of anything else. Emotion becomes dominant.
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We can't live in a state of perpetual doubt, so we make up the best story possible and we live as if the story were true.
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After a crisis we tell ourselves we understand why it happened and maintain the illusion that the world is understandable. In fact, we should accept the world is incomprehensible much of the time.
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There are domains in which expertise is not possible. Stock picking is a good example. And in long-term political strategic forecasting, it's been shown that experts are just not better than a dice-throwing monkey.
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Our memory tells us stories, that is, what we get to keep from our experiences is a story.
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Acquisition of skills requires a regular environment, an adequate opportunity to practice, and rapid and unequivocal feedback about the correctness of thoughts and actions.
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Question: So investors shouldn't delude themselves about beating the market? Answer: They're just not going to do it. It's just not going to happen.
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We have associations to things. We have, you know, we have associations to tables and to - and to dogs and to cats and to Harvard professors, and that's the way the mind works. It's an association machine.
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I'm not a great believer in self-help.
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Most things that couples disagree upon aren't worth more than a day's combat.
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We can be blind to the obvious, and we are also blind to our blindness.
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Experts don't know exactly where the boundaries of their expertise are.
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The effort invested in 'getting it right' should be commensurate with the importance of the decision.
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By their very nature, heuristic shortcuts will produce biases, and that is true for both humans and artificial intelligence, but the heuristics of AI are not necessarily the human ones.
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If you're going to be unreligious, it's likely going to be due to reflecting on it and finding some things that are hard to believe.
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In a rising market, enough of your bad ideas will pay off so that you'll never learn that you should have fewer ideas.
Daniel Kahneman
We're generally overconfident in our opinions and our impressions and judgments.
Daniel Kahneman
