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An individual who expresses high confidence probably has a good story, which may or may not be true.

Daniel Kahneman

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Daniel Kahneman
Age: 90
Born: 1934
Born: March 5
Economist
Psychologist
University Teacher
Tel Aviv
Israel
D Kahneman
Individual
True
Stories
May
Expresses
Good
Confidence
Probably
High
Story

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People exaggerate their confidence in their plans - something we call the planning fallacy... The existence of the plan tends to induce overconfidence.
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Our memory tells us stories, that is, what we get to keep from our experiences is a story.
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Often, the most enjoyable part of an activity is the anticipation.
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People should be conscious of the large contribution made by anything that gets people together easily in the reduction of loneliness and emotional well-being.
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The evidence is unequivocal, there's a great deal more luck than skill in people getting very rich.
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I have always emphasized the willingness to discard.
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We are far too willing to reject the belief that much of what we see in life is random.
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If people can construct a simple and coherent story, they will feel confident regardless of how well grounded it is in reality.
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Doubting what you see is a very odd experience. And doubting what you remember is a little less odd than doubting what you see. But it's also a pretty odd experience, because some memories come with a very compelling sense of truth about them, and that happens to be the case even for memories that are not true.
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... sometimes when you are asked a question that is difficult, the mind doesn't stay silent if it doesn't have the answer. The mind produces something, and what it produces very characteristically is the answer to an easier but related question.
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Researchers who studied a thousand Dutch vacationers concluded that by far the greatest amount of happiness extracted from the vacation is derived from the anticipation period.
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True intuitive expertise is learned from prolonged experience with good feedback on mistakes.
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Each additional day together is a gift. The end of the day means the end of hostilities, the recognition that the underlying shared values and commitment to the relationship trump the need for one last dig or self-righteous justification.
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The confidence people have in their beliefs is not a measure of the quality of evidence but of the coherence of the story the mind has managed to construct.
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People who are cognitively busy are also more likely to make selfish choices, use sexist language, and make superficial judgments in social situations.
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People are really happier with friends than they are with their families or their spouse or their child.
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Negotiations over a shrinking pie are especially difficult because they require an allocation of losses. People tend to be much more easygoing when they bargain over an expanding pie.
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It's clear that policymakers and economists are going to be interested in the measurement of well-being primarily as it correlates with health they also want to know whether researchers can validate subjective responses with physiological indices.
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Most things that couples disagree upon aren't worth more than a day's combat.
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Managers think of themselves as captains of a ship on a stormy sea. Risk for them is danger, but they are fighting it, very controlled.
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