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An investment said to have an 80% chance of success sounds far more attractive than one with a 20% chance of failure. The mind can't easily recognize that they are the same.
Daniel Kahneman
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Daniel Kahneman
Age: 90
Born: 1934
Born: March 5
Economist
Psychologist
University Teacher
Tel Aviv
Israel
D Kahneman
Easily
Failure
Chance
Sound
Success
Attractive
Mind
Sounds
Investment
Recognize
More quotes by Daniel Kahneman
People just hate the idea of losing. Any loss, even a small one, is just so terrible to contemplate that they compensate by buying insurance, including totally absurd policies like air travel.
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Divorced women, compared to married women, are less satisfied with their lives, which is not surprising. But they're actually more cheerful, when you look at the average mood they're in in the course of the day.
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Policy makers, like most people, normally feel that they already know all the psychology and all the sociology they are likely to need for their decisions. I don't think they are right, but that's the way it is.
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Intuitive diagnosis is reliable when people have a lot of relevant feedback. But people are very often willing to make intuitive diagnoses even when they're very likely to be wrong.
Daniel Kahneman
Managers think of themselves as captains of a ship on a stormy sea. Risk for them is danger, but they are fighting it, very controlled.
Daniel Kahneman
In a rising market, enough of your bad ideas will pay off so that you'll never learn that you should have fewer ideas.
Daniel Kahneman
The dominance of conclusions over arguments is most pronounced where emotions are involved.
Daniel Kahneman
Most things that couples disagree upon aren't worth more than a day's combat.
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People are very good [at] thinking about agents. The mind is set really beautifully to think about agents. Agents have traits. Agents have behaviors. We understand agents. We form global impression of their personalities. We are really not very good at remembering sentences where the subject of the sentence is an abstract notion.
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Adaptation seems to be, to a substantial extent, a process of reallocating your attention.
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It is only a slight exaggeration to say that happiness is the experience of spending time with people you love and who love you.
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A person who has not made peace with his losses is likely to accept gambles that would be unacceptable to him otherwise.
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Slow thinking has the feeling of something you do. It's deliberate.
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The evidence is unequivocal, there's a great deal more luck than skill in people getting very rich.
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Optimism is normal, but some fortunate people are more optimistic than the rest of us. If you are genetically endowed with an optimistic bias, you hardly need to be told that you are a lucky person - you already feel fortunate.
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The confidence people have in their beliefs is not a measure of the quality of evidence but of the coherence of the story the mind has managed to construct.
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The illusion that we understand the past fosters overconfidence in our ability to predict the future.
Daniel Kahneman
There are domains in which expertise is not possible. Stock picking is a good example. And in long-term political strategic forecasting, it's been shown that experts are just not better than a dice-throwing monkey.
Daniel Kahneman
It is the consistency of the information that matters for a good story, not its completeness. Indeed, you will often find that knowing little makes it easier to fit everything you know into a coherent pattern.
Daniel Kahneman
People who are cognitively busy are also more likely to make selfish choices, use sexist language, and make superficial judgments in social situations.
Daniel Kahneman
