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An investment said to have an 80% chance of success sounds far more attractive than one with a 20% chance of failure. The mind can't easily recognize that they are the same.
Daniel Kahneman
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Daniel Kahneman
Age: 90
Born: 1934
Born: March 5
Economist
Psychologist
University Teacher
Tel Aviv
Israel
D Kahneman
Easily
Failure
Chance
Sound
Success
Attractive
Mind
Sounds
Investment
Recognize
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Most things that couples disagree upon aren't worth more than a day's combat.
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Survival prospects are poor for an animal that is not suspicious of novelty.
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Each additional day together is a gift. The end of the day means the end of hostilities, the recognition that the underlying shared values and commitment to the relationship trump the need for one last dig or self-righteous justification.
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Courage is willingness to take the risk once you know the odds. Optimistic overconfidence means you are taking the risk because you don't know the odds. It's a big difference.
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We associate leadership with decisiveness. That perception of leadership pushes people to make decisions fairly quickly, lest they be seen as dithering and indecisive.
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After a crisis we tell ourselves we understand why it happened and maintain the illusion that the world is understandable. In fact, we should accept the world is incomprehensible much of the time.
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The concept of loss aversion is certainly the most significant contribution of psychology to behavioral economics.
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People are really happier with friends than they are with their families or their spouse or their child.
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The confidence people have in their beliefs is not a measure of the quality of evidence but of the coherence of the story the mind has managed to construct.
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That's one of the real dangers of leader selection in many organizations: leaders are selected for overconfidence.
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The most effortful forms of slow thinking are those that require you to think fast.
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Political columnists and sports pundits are rewarded for being overconfident.
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Acquisition of skills requires a regular environment, an adequate opportunity to practice, and rapid and unequivocal feedback about the correctness of thoughts and actions.
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We have no reason to expect the quality of intuition to improve with the importance of the problem. Perhaps the contrary: high-stake problems are likely to involve powerful emotions and strong impulses to action.
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It's very easy for trusted companies to mislead naive customers, and life insurance companies are trusted.
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Adaptation seems to be, to a substantial extent, a process of reallocating your attention.
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Individual investors predictably flock to stocks in companies that are in the news.
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Optimism is normal, but some fortunate people are more optimistic than the rest of us. If you are genetically endowed with an optimistic bias, you hardly need to be told that you are a lucky person - you already feel fortunate.
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