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When people think of the outcomes of their decisions, they think much more short term than that. They think in terms of gains and losses.
Daniel Kahneman
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Daniel Kahneman
Age: 90
Born: 1934
Born: March 5
Economist
Psychologist
University Teacher
Tel Aviv
Israel
D Kahneman
People
Terms
Short
Loss
Decision
Term
Losses
Much
Outcomes
Think
Gains
Thinking
Decisions
More quotes by Daniel Kahneman
People have little idea, by and large, of the investment world. They are convinced they have an advantage.
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We have no reason to expect the quality of intuition to improve with the importance of the problem. Perhaps the contrary: high-stake problems are likely to involve powerful emotions and strong impulses to action.
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It's nonsense to say money doesn't buy happiness, but people exaggerate the extent to which more money can buy more happiness.
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Researchers who studied a thousand Dutch vacationers concluded that by far the greatest amount of happiness extracted from the vacation is derived from the anticipation period.
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Intuitive diagnosis is reliable when people have a lot of relevant feedback. But people are very often willing to make intuitive diagnoses even when they're very likely to be wrong.
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Experts don't know exactly where the boundaries of their expertise are.
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Laziness is built deep into our nature.
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The effort invested in 'getting it right' should be commensurate with the importance of the decision.
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So your emotional state really has a lot to do with what you're thinking about and what you're paying attention to.
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The illusion that we understand the past fosters overconfidence in our ability to predict the future.
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People are very good [at] thinking about agents. The mind is set really beautifully to think about agents. Agents have traits. Agents have behaviors. We understand agents. We form global impression of their personalities. We are really not very good at remembering sentences where the subject of the sentence is an abstract notion.
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People just hate the idea of losing. Any loss, even a small one, is just so terrible to contemplate that they compensate by buying insurance, including totally absurd policies like air travel.
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Most successful pundits are selected for being opinionated, because it's interesting, and the penalties for incorrect predictions are negligible. You can make predictions, and a year later people won't remember them.
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Often, the most enjoyable part of an activity is the anticipation.
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The amount of success it takes for leaders to become overconfident isn't terribly large.
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Policy makers, like most people, normally feel that they already know all the psychology and all the sociology they are likely to need for their decisions. I don't think they are right, but that's the way it is.
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Political columnists and sports pundits are rewarded for being overconfident.
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In essence, the optimistic style involves taking credit for successes but little blame for failures.
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We're generally overconfident in our opinions and our impressions and judgments.
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The confidence that individuals have in their beliefs depends mostly on the quality of the story they can tell about what they see, even if they see little.
Daniel Kahneman
