Quote

... sometimes when you are asked a question that is difficult, the mind doesn't stay silent if it doesn't have the answer. The mind produces something, and what it produces very characteristically is the answer to an easier but related question.

Daniel Kahneman

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Daniel Kahneman
Age: 90
Born: 1934
Born: March 5
Economist
Psychologist
University Teacher
Tel Aviv
Israel
D Kahneman
Question
Produces
Answers
Related
Difficult
Silent
Doesn
Answer
Sometimes
Asked
Mind
Produce
Something
Stay
Easier
Characteristically

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The confidence people have in their beliefs is not a measure of the quality of evidence but of the coherence of the story the mind has managed to construct.
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You're surprised by something, but you don't really know what surprised you you recognize someone, but you don't really know what cues cause you to recognize that person.
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That's one of the real dangers of leader selection in many organizations: leaders are selected for overconfidence.
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All of us roughly know what memory is. I mean, memory is sort of the storage of the past. It's the storage of our personal experiences. It's a very big deal.
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The effort invested in 'getting it right' should be commensurate with the importance of the decision.
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An individual who expresses high confidence probably has a good story, which may or may not be true.
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There is a huge wave of interest in happiness among researchers. There is a lot of happiness coaching. Everybody would like to make people happier.
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So your emotional state really has a lot to do with what you're thinking about and what you're paying attention to.
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Most people are highly optimistic most of the time.
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Groups tend to be more extreme than individuals.
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Managers think of themselves as captains of a ship on a stormy sea. Risk for them is danger, but they are fighting it, very controlled.
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Alternative descriptions of the same reality evoke different emotions and different associations.
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A person who has not made peace with his losses is likely to accept gambles that would be unacceptable to him otherwise.
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Establish a closing ritual. Know when to stop working. Try to end each work day the same way, too. Straighten up your desk. Back up your computer. Make a list of what you need to do tomorrow.
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One thing we have lost, that we had in the past, is a sense of progress, that things are getting better. There is a sense of volatility, but not of progress.
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If people can construct a simple and coherent story, they will feel confident regardless of how well grounded it is in reality.
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Friends are sometimes a big help when they share your feelings. In the context of decisions, the friends who will serve you best are those who understand your feelings but are not overly impressed by them.
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Often, the most enjoyable part of an activity is the anticipation.
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Survival prospects are poor for an animal that is not suspicious of novelty.
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