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People have little idea, by and large, of the investment world. They are convinced they have an advantage.
Daniel Kahneman
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Daniel Kahneman
Age: 90
Born: 1934
Born: March 5
Economist
Psychologist
University Teacher
Tel Aviv
Israel
D Kahneman
People
Large
Advantage
Idea
Money
Littles
Ideas
Little
Investment
World
Convinced
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We can be blind to the obvious, and we are also blind to our blindness.
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You should not take your intuitions at face value.
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In a rising market, enough of your bad ideas will pay off so that you'll never learn that you should have fewer ideas.
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All of us roughly know what memory is. I mean, memory is sort of the storage of the past. It's the storage of our personal experiences. It's a very big deal.
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Political columnists and sports pundits are rewarded for being overconfident.
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True intuitive expertise is learned from prolonged experience with good feedback on mistakes.
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You are more likely to learn something by finding surprises in your own behavior than by hearing surprising facts about people in general.
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My interest in well-being evolved from my interest in decision making - from raising the question of whether people know what they will want in the future and whether the things that people want for themselves will make them happy.
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Courage is willingness to take the risk once you know the odds. Optimistic overconfidence means you are taking the risk because you don't know the odds. It's a big difference.
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This is the essence of intuitive heuristics: when faced with a difficult question, we often answer an easier one instead, usually without noticing the substitution.
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All of us would be better investors if we just made fewer decisions.
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... sometimes when you are asked a question that is difficult, the mind doesn't stay silent if it doesn't have the answer. The mind produces something, and what it produces very characteristically is the answer to an easier but related question.
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It's clear that policymakers and economists are going to be interested in the measurement of well-being primarily as it correlates with health they also want to know whether researchers can validate subjective responses with physiological indices.
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The concept of happiness has to be reorganised.
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If owning stocks is a long-term project for you, following their changes constantly is a very, very bad idea. It's the worst possible thing you can do, because people are so sensitive to short-term losses. If you count your money every day, you'll be miserable.
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I enjoy being active, but I look forward to the day when I can retire to the Internet.
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Overconfidence is a powerful source of illusions, primarily determined by the quality and coherence of the story that you can construct, not by its validity.
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Intelligence is not only the ability to reason it is also the ability to find relevant material in memory and to deploy attention when needed.
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Policy makers, like most people, normally feel that they already know all the psychology and all the sociology they are likely to need for their decisions. I don't think they are right, but that's the way it is.
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