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People have little idea, by and large, of the investment world. They are convinced they have an advantage.

Daniel Kahneman

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Daniel Kahneman
Age: 90
Born: 1934
Born: March 5
Economist
Psychologist
University Teacher
Tel Aviv
Israel
D Kahneman
Money
Littles
Ideas
Little
Investment
World
Convinced
People
Large
Advantage
Idea

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The dominance of conclusions over arguments is most pronounced where emotions are involved.
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The illusion that we understand the past fosters overconfidence in our ability to predict the future.
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Courage is willingness to take the risk once you know the odds. Optimistic overconfidence means you are taking the risk because you don't know the odds. It's a big difference.
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People are really happier with friends than they are with their families or their spouse or their child.
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The confidence that individuals have in their beliefs depends mostly on the quality of the story they can tell about what they see, even if they see little.
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People are very good [at] thinking about agents. The mind is set really beautifully to think about agents. Agents have traits. Agents have behaviors. We understand agents. We form global impression of their personalities. We are really not very good at remembering sentences where the subject of the sentence is an abstract notion.
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It is the consistency of the information that matters for a good story, not its completeness. Indeed, you will often find that knowing little makes it easier to fit everything you know into a coherent pattern.
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The amount of success it takes for leaders to become overconfident isn't terribly large.
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The most effortful forms of slow thinking are those that require you to think fast.
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It's nonsense to say money doesn't buy happiness, but people exaggerate the extent to which more money can buy more happiness.
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Some memories come with a very compelling sense of truth about them. And that happens to be the case even with memories that are not true.
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That's one of the real dangers of leader selection in many organizations: leaders are selected for overconfidence.
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We have no reason to expect the quality of intuition to improve with the importance of the problem. Perhaps the contrary: high-stake problems are likely to involve powerful emotions and strong impulses to action.
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Optimistic people play a disproportionate role in shaping our lives. Their decisions make a difference they are inventors, entrepreneurs, political and military leaders - not average people. They got to where they are by seeking challenges and taking risks.
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I'm not a great believer in self-help.
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An investment said to have an 80% chance of success sounds far more attractive than one with a 20% chance of failure. The mind can't easily recognize that they are the same.
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This is the essence of intuitive heuristics: when faced with a difficult question, we often answer an easier one instead, usually without noticing the substitution.
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If people can construct a simple and coherent story, they will feel confident regardless of how well grounded it is in reality.
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Political columnists and sports pundits are rewarded for being overconfident.
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What happens with fear is that probability doesn't matter very much. That is, once I have raised the possibility that something terrible can happen to your child, even though the possibility is remote, you may find it very difficult to think of anything else. Emotion becomes dominant.
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