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People just hate the idea of losing. Any loss, even a small one, is just so terrible to contemplate that they compensate by buying insurance, including totally absurd policies like air travel.
Daniel Kahneman
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Daniel Kahneman
Age: 90
Born: 1934
Born: March 5
Economist
Psychologist
University Teacher
Tel Aviv
Israel
D Kahneman
Terrible
Buying
People
Policy
Absurd
Small
Totally
Idea
Including
Compensate
Hate
Air
Contemplate
Ideas
Travel
Contemplating
Losing
Insurance
Even
Loss
Policies
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Divorced women, compared to married women, are less satisfied with their lives, which is not surprising. But they're actually more cheerful, when you look at the average mood they're in in the course of the day.
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Psychologists really aim to be scientists, white-coat stuff, with elaborate statistics, running experiments.
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The dominance of conclusions over arguments is most pronounced where emotions are involved.
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A large portion of the weekend effects is explained by differences in the amount of time spent with friends or family between weekends and weekdays.
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Except for some effects that I attribute mostly to age, my intuitive thinking is just as prone to overconfidence, extreme predictions, and the planning fallacy as it was before I made a study of these issues.
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People who are cognitively busy are also more likely to make selfish choices, use sexist language, and make superficial judgments in social situations.
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We are very influenced by completely automatic things that we have no control over, and we don't know we're doing it.
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Optimistic people play a disproportionate role in shaping our lives. Their decisions make a difference they are inventors, entrepreneurs, political and military leaders - not average people. They got to where they are by seeking challenges and taking risks.
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The effort invested in 'getting it right' should be commensurate with the importance of the decision.
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People talk of the new economy and of reinventing themselves in the workplace, and in that sense most of us are less secure.
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All of us would be better investors if we just made fewer decisions.
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Slow thinking has the feeling of something you do. It's deliberate.
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Acquisition of skills requires a regular environment, an adequate opportunity to practice, and rapid and unequivocal feedback about the correctness of thoughts and actions.
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Friends are sometimes a big help when they share your feelings. In the context of decisions, the friends who will serve you best are those who understand your feelings but are not overly impressed by them.
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You are more likely to learn something by finding surprises in your own behavior than by hearing surprising facts about people in general.
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Political columnists and sports pundits are rewarded for being overconfident.
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I would not advise people to buy a car or house without making a list. You will probably improve your intuitions by making a list and then sleeping on it.
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Policy makers, like most people, normally feel that they already know all the psychology and all the sociology they are likely to need for their decisions. I don't think they are right, but that's the way it is.
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Overconfidence is a powerful source of illusions, primarily determined by the quality and coherence of the story that you can construct, not by its validity.
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Hindsight bias makes surprises vanish.
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