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People exaggerate their confidence in their plans - something we call the planning fallacy... The existence of the plan tends to induce overconfidence.

Daniel Kahneman

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Daniel Kahneman
Age: 90
Born: 1934
Born: March 5
Economist
Psychologist
University Teacher
Tel Aviv
Israel
D Kahneman
Plans
Existence
Induce
Call
Exaggerate
Something
Fallacy
People
Tends
Planning
Plan
Confidence

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Except for some effects that I attribute mostly to age, my intuitive thinking is just as prone to overconfidence, extreme predictions, and the planning fallacy as it was before I made a study of these issues.
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Divorced women, compared to married women, are less satisfied with their lives, which is not surprising. But they're actually more cheerful, when you look at the average mood they're in in the course of the day.
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The illusion that we understand the past fosters overconfidence in our ability to predict the future.
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I used to hold a unitary view, in which I proposed that only experienced happiness matters, and that life satisfaction is a fallible estimate of true happiness.
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There are domains in which expertise is not possible. Stock picking is a good example. And in long-term political strategic forecasting, it's been shown that experts are just not better than a dice-throwing monkey.
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There's a tendency to look at investments in isolation. Investors focus on the risk of individual securities.
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The amount of success it takes for leaders to become overconfident isn't terribly large.
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You are more likely to learn something by finding surprises in your own behavior than by hearing surprising facts about people in general.
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People just hate the idea of losing. Any loss, even a small one, is just so terrible to contemplate that they compensate by buying insurance, including totally absurd policies like air travel.
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The effort invested in 'getting it right' should be commensurate with the importance of the decision.
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If you can't take the time for a vacation right now, or even a night out with friends, put something on the calendar - even if it's a month or a year down the road. Then whenever you need a boost of happiness, remind yourself about it.
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People like leaders who look like they are dominant, optimistic, friendly to their friends, and quick on the trigger when it comes to enemies. They like boldness and despise the appearance of timidity and protracted doubt.
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The most effortful forms of slow thinking are those that require you to think fast.
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Acquisition of skills requires a regular environment, an adequate opportunity to practice, and rapid and unequivocal feedback about the correctness of thoughts and actions.
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Survival prospects are poor for an animal that is not suspicious of novelty.
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The evidence is unequivocal, there's a great deal more luck than skill in people getting very rich.
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I enjoy being active, but I look forward to the day when I can retire to the Internet.
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Money does not buy you happiness, but lack of money certainly buys you misery.
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