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People exaggerate their confidence in their plans - something we call the planning fallacy... The existence of the plan tends to induce overconfidence.
Daniel Kahneman
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Daniel Kahneman
Age: 90
Born: 1934
Born: March 5
Economist
Psychologist
University Teacher
Tel Aviv
Israel
D Kahneman
Existence
Induce
Call
Exaggerate
Something
Fallacy
People
Tends
Planning
Plan
Confidence
Plans
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Each additional day together is a gift. The end of the day means the end of hostilities, the recognition that the underlying shared values and commitment to the relationship trump the need for one last dig or self-righteous justification.
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We can't live in a state of perpetual doubt, so we make up the best story possible and we live as if the story were true.
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Most successful pundits are selected for being opinionated, because it's interesting, and the penalties for incorrect predictions are negligible. You can make predictions, and a year later people won't remember them.
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The most effortful forms of slow thinking are those that require you to think fast.
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There is a huge wave of interest in happiness among researchers. There is a lot of happiness coaching. Everybody would like to make people happier.
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Through some combination of culture and biology, our minds are intuitively receptive to religion.
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The amount of success it takes for leaders to become overconfident isn't terribly large.
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Except for some effects that I attribute mostly to age, my intuitive thinking is just as prone to overconfidence, extreme predictions, and the planning fallacy as it was before I made a study of these issues.
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Experts don't know exactly where the boundaries of their expertise are.
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What happens with fear is that probability doesn't matter very much. That is, once I have raised the possibility that something terrible can happen to your child, even though the possibility is remote, you may find it very difficult to think of anything else. Emotion becomes dominant.
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Individual investors predictably flock to stocks in companies that are in the news.
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When people think of the outcomes of their decisions, they think much more short term than that. They think in terms of gains and losses.
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I'm not a great believer in self-help.
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