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The brain scientists are the wave of the future in the financial world. If you seek to maximize understanding, whether you're in academia or in the investment community, you'd better pay serious attention to them.
Daniel Kahneman
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Daniel Kahneman
Age: 90
Born: 1934
Born: March 5
Economist
Psychologist
University Teacher
Tel Aviv
Israel
D Kahneman
Whether
Financial
Future
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Brain
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There are some conditions where you have to trust your intuition.
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The planning fallacy is that you make a plan, which is usually a best-case scenario. Then you assume that the outcome will follow your plan, even when you should know better.
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Friends are sometimes a big help when they share your feelings. In the context of decisions, the friends who will serve you best are those who understand your feelings but are not overly impressed by them.
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Employers who violate rules of fairness are punished by reduced productivity, and merchants who follow unfair pricing policies can expect to lose sales.
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The effort invested in 'getting it right' should be commensurate with the importance of the decision.
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It is the consistency of the information that matters for a good story, not its completeness. Indeed, you will often find that knowing little makes it easier to fit everything you know into a coherent pattern.
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Optimistic people play a disproportionate role in shaping our lives. Their decisions make a difference they are inventors, entrepreneurs, political and military leaders - not average people. They got to where they are by seeking challenges and taking risks.
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All of us would be better investors if we just made fewer decisions.
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If people can construct a simple and coherent story, they will feel confident regardless of how well grounded it is in reality.
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Question: So investors shouldn't delude themselves about beating the market? Answer: They're just not going to do it. It's just not going to happen.
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Intelligence is not only the ability to reason it is also the ability to find relevant material in memory and to deploy attention when needed.
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People are really happier with friends than they are with their families or their spouse or their child.
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It's nonsense to say money doesn't buy happiness, but people exaggerate the extent to which more money can buy more happiness.
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People have little idea, by and large, of the investment world. They are convinced they have an advantage.
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There's a very good reason for why economics developed the way it did, and that is that in many situations, the assumption that people will exploit the opportunities available to them is very plausible, and it simplifies the analysis of how markets will behave.
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We're generally overconfident in our opinions and our impressions and judgments.
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Psychologists really aim to be scientists, white-coat stuff, with elaborate statistics, running experiments.
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