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We can't live in a state of perpetual doubt, so we make up the best story possible and we live as if the story were true.

Daniel Kahneman

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Daniel Kahneman
Age: 90
Born: 1934
Born: March 5
Economist
Psychologist
University Teacher
Tel Aviv
Israel
D Kahneman
States
Best
Perpetual
Live
Doubt
Make
Possible
State
Story
True
Stories

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You are more likely to learn something by finding surprises in your own behavior than by hearing surprising facts about people in general.
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I have always emphasized the willingness to discard.
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The planning fallacy is that you make a plan, which is usually a best-case scenario. Then you assume that the outcome will follow your plan, even when you should know better.
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Employers who violate rules of fairness are punished by reduced productivity, and merchants who follow unfair pricing policies can expect to lose sales.
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If you can't take the time for a vacation right now, or even a night out with friends, put something on the calendar - even if it's a month or a year down the road. Then whenever you need a boost of happiness, remind yourself about it.
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The concept of loss aversion is certainly the most significant contribution of psychology to behavioral economics.
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In a rising market, enough of your bad ideas will pay off so that you'll never learn that you should have fewer ideas.
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People are really happier with friends than they are with their families or their spouse or their child.
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The dominance of conclusions over arguments is most pronounced where emotions are involved.
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People who are cognitively busy are also more likely to make selfish choices, use sexist language, and make superficial judgments in social situations.
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People have little idea, by and large, of the investment world. They are convinced they have an advantage.
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Overconfidence is a powerful source of illusions, primarily determined by the quality and coherence of the story that you can construct, not by its validity.
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There are some conditions where you have to trust your intuition.
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We associate leadership with decisiveness. That perception of leadership pushes people to make decisions fairly quickly, lest they be seen as dithering and indecisive.
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Intuitive diagnosis is reliable when people have a lot of relevant feedback. But people are very often willing to make intuitive diagnoses even when they're very likely to be wrong.
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It's very easy for trusted companies to mislead naive customers, and life insurance companies are trusted.
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Negotiations over a shrinking pie are especially difficult because they require an allocation of losses. People tend to be much more easygoing when they bargain over an expanding pie.
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By their very nature, heuristic shortcuts will produce biases, and that is true for both humans and artificial intelligence, but the heuristics of AI are not necessarily the human ones.
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It's nonsense to say money doesn't buy happiness, but people exaggerate the extent to which more money can buy more happiness.
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Except for some effects that I attribute mostly to age, my intuitive thinking is just as prone to overconfidence, extreme predictions, and the planning fallacy as it was before I made a study of these issues.
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