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The dominance of conclusions over arguments is most pronounced where emotions are involved.
Daniel Kahneman
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Daniel Kahneman
Age: 90
Born: 1934
Born: March 5
Economist
Psychologist
University Teacher
Tel Aviv
Israel
D Kahneman
Conclusions
Arguments
Conclusion
Emotions
Argument
Involved
Emotion
Pronounced
Dominance
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We're generally overconfident in our opinions and our impressions and judgments.
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... sometimes when you are asked a question that is difficult, the mind doesn't stay silent if it doesn't have the answer. The mind produces something, and what it produces very characteristically is the answer to an easier but related question.
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Doubting what you see is a very odd experience. And doubting what you remember is a little less odd than doubting what you see. But it's also a pretty odd experience, because some memories come with a very compelling sense of truth about them, and that happens to be the case even for memories that are not true.
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It's clear that policymakers and economists are going to be interested in the measurement of well-being primarily as it correlates with health they also want to know whether researchers can validate subjective responses with physiological indices.
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People should be conscious of the large contribution made by anything that gets people together easily in the reduction of loneliness and emotional well-being.
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The effort invested in 'getting it right' should be commensurate with the importance of the decision.
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A general limitation of the human mind is its imperfect ability to reconstruct past states of knowledge, or beliefs that have changed. Once you adopt a new view of the world (or any part of it), you immediately lose much of your ability to recall what you used to believe before your mind changed.
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People who are cognitively busy are also more likely to make selfish choices, use sexist language, and make superficial judgments in social situations.
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You are more likely to learn something by finding surprises in your own behavior than by hearing surprising facts about people in general.
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Except for some effects that I attribute mostly to age, my intuitive thinking is just as prone to overconfidence, extreme predictions, and the planning fallacy as it was before I made a study of these issues.
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What happens with fear is that probability doesn't matter very much. That is, once I have raised the possibility that something terrible can happen to your child, even though the possibility is remote, you may find it very difficult to think of anything else. Emotion becomes dominant.
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The confidence people have in their beliefs is not a measure of the quality of evidence but of the coherence of the story the mind has managed to construct.
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Through some combination of culture and biology, our minds are intuitively receptive to religion.
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