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We are far too willing to reject the belief that much of what we see in life is random.
Daniel Kahneman
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Daniel Kahneman
Age: 90
Born: 1934
Born: March 5
Economist
Psychologist
University Teacher
Tel Aviv
Israel
D Kahneman
Rejects
Willing
Belief
Much
Life
Random
Reject
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When people believe a conclusion is true, they are also very likely to believe arguments that appear to support it, even when these arguments are unsound.
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The confidence people have in their beliefs is not a measure of the quality of evidence but of the coherence of the story the mind has managed to construct.
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The brain scientists are the wave of the future in the financial world. If you seek to maximize understanding, whether you're in academia or in the investment community, you'd better pay serious attention to them.
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Acquisition of skills requires a regular environment, an adequate opportunity to practice, and rapid and unequivocal feedback about the correctness of thoughts and actions.
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Except for some effects that I attribute mostly to age, my intuitive thinking is just as prone to overconfidence, extreme predictions, and the planning fallacy as it was before I made a study of these issues.
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Through some combination of culture and biology, our minds are intuitively receptive to religion.
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That's one of the real dangers of leader selection in many organizations: leaders are selected for overconfidence.
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