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We are far too willing to reject the belief that much of what we see in life is random.

Daniel Kahneman

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Daniel Kahneman
Age: 90
Born: 1934
Born: March 5
Economist
Psychologist
University Teacher
Tel Aviv
Israel
D Kahneman
Random
Reject
Rejects
Willing
Belief
Much
Life

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All of us roughly know what memory is. I mean, memory is sort of the storage of the past. It's the storage of our personal experiences. It's a very big deal.
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If owning stocks is a long-term project for you, following their changes constantly is a very, very bad idea. It's the worst possible thing you can do, because people are so sensitive to short-term losses. If you count your money every day, you'll be miserable.
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Many people will admit that they made a mistake [putting money in dot-coms or telecoms at their peak] But that doesn’t mean that they’ve changed their mind about anything in particular. It doesn’t mean that they are now able to avoid that mistake.
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Individual investors predictably flock to stocks in companies that are in the news.
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Our memory tells us stories, that is, what we get to keep from our experiences is a story.
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There are domains in which expertise is not possible. Stock picking is a good example. And in long-term political strategic forecasting, it's been shown that experts are just not better than a dice-throwing monkey.
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There's a tendency to look at investments in isolation. Investors focus on the risk of individual securities.
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Employers who violate rules of fairness are punished by reduced productivity, and merchants who follow unfair pricing policies can expect to lose sales.
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Psychologists really aim to be scientists, white-coat stuff, with elaborate statistics, running experiments.
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Intuitive diagnosis is reliable when people have a lot of relevant feedback. But people are very often willing to make intuitive diagnoses even when they're very likely to be wrong.
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This is the essence of intuitive heuristics: when faced with a difficult question, we often answer an easier one instead, usually without noticing the substitution.
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It's nonsense to say money doesn't buy happiness, but people exaggerate the extent to which more money can buy more happiness.
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When action is needed, optimism, even of the mildly delusional variety, may be a good thing.
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People like leaders who look like they are dominant, optimistic, friendly to their friends, and quick on the trigger when it comes to enemies. They like boldness and despise the appearance of timidity and protracted doubt.
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I'm not a great believer in self-help.
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It doesn't take many observations to think you've spotted a trend, and it's probably not a trend at all.
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The planning fallacy is that you make a plan, which is usually a best-case scenario. Then you assume that the outcome will follow your plan, even when you should know better.
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An individual who expresses high confidence probably has a good story, which may or may not be true.
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The confidence people have in their beliefs is not a measure of the quality of evidence but of the coherence of the story the mind has managed to construct.
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We associate leadership with decisiveness. That perception of leadership pushes people to make decisions fairly quickly, lest they be seen as dithering and indecisive.
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