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When action is needed, optimism, even of the mildly delusional variety, may be a good thing.
Daniel Kahneman
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Daniel Kahneman
Age: 90
Born: 1934
Born: March 5
Economist
Psychologist
University Teacher
Tel Aviv
Israel
D Kahneman
Action
May
Even
Thing
Mildly
Good
Delusional
Optimism
Variety
Needed
More quotes by Daniel Kahneman
Psychologists really aim to be scientists, white-coat stuff, with elaborate statistics, running experiments.
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If owning stocks is a long-term project for you, following their changes constantly is a very, very bad idea. It's the worst possible thing you can do, because people are so sensitive to short-term losses. If you count your money every day, you'll be miserable.
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It's nonsense to say money doesn't buy happiness, but people exaggerate the extent to which more money can buy more happiness.
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Managers think of themselves as captains of a ship on a stormy sea. Risk for them is danger, but they are fighting it, very controlled.
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Most of the moments of our life - and I calculated, you know, the psychological present is said to be about three seconds long that means that, you know, in a life there are about 600 million of them in a month, there are about 600,000 - most of them don't leave a trace.
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An investment said to have an 80% chance of success sounds far more attractive than one with a 20% chance of failure. The mind can't easily recognize that they are the same.
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Political columnists and sports pundits are rewarded for being overconfident.
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Researchers who studied a thousand Dutch vacationers concluded that by far the greatest amount of happiness extracted from the vacation is derived from the anticipation period.
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If you can't take the time for a vacation right now, or even a night out with friends, put something on the calendar - even if it's a month or a year down the road. Then whenever you need a boost of happiness, remind yourself about it.
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That's one of the real dangers of leader selection in many organizations: leaders are selected for overconfidence.
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So your emotional state really has a lot to do with what you're thinking about and what you're paying attention to.
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People have little idea, by and large, of the investment world. They are convinced they have an advantage.
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Some memories come with a very compelling sense of truth about them. And that happens to be the case even with memories that are not true.
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Slow thinking has the feeling of something you do. It's deliberate.
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... sometimes when you are asked a question that is difficult, the mind doesn't stay silent if it doesn't have the answer. The mind produces something, and what it produces very characteristically is the answer to an easier but related question.
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What happens with fear is that probability doesn't matter very much. That is, once I have raised the possibility that something terrible can happen to your child, even though the possibility is remote, you may find it very difficult to think of anything else. Emotion becomes dominant.
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People like leaders who look like they are dominant, optimistic, friendly to their friends, and quick on the trigger when it comes to enemies. They like boldness and despise the appearance of timidity and protracted doubt.
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This is the essence of intuitive heuristics: when faced with a difficult question, we often answer an easier one instead, usually without noticing the substitution.
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Adaptation seems to be, to a substantial extent, a process of reallocating your attention.
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I would not advise people to buy a car or house without making a list. You will probably improve your intuitions by making a list and then sleeping on it.
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