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The illusion that we understand the past fosters overconfidence in our ability to predict the future.

Daniel Kahneman

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Daniel Kahneman
Age: 90
Born: 1934
Born: March 5
Economist
Psychologist
University Teacher
Tel Aviv
Israel
D Kahneman
Ability
Future
Understand
Past
Fosters
Predict
Illusion

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When action is needed, optimism, even of the mildly delusional variety, may be a good thing.
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Laziness is built deep into our nature.
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Poverty is clearly one source of emotional suffering, but there are others, like loneliness. A policy to reduce the loneliness of the elderly would certainly reduce suffering.
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It's very easy for trusted companies to mislead naive customers, and life insurance companies are trusted.
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Employers who violate rules of fairness are punished by reduced productivity, and merchants who follow unfair pricing policies can expect to lose sales.
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People are very good [at] thinking about agents. The mind is set really beautifully to think about agents. Agents have traits. Agents have behaviors. We understand agents. We form global impression of their personalities. We are really not very good at remembering sentences where the subject of the sentence is an abstract notion.
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... sometimes when you are asked a question that is difficult, the mind doesn't stay silent if it doesn't have the answer. The mind produces something, and what it produces very characteristically is the answer to an easier but related question.
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You should not take your intuitions at face value.
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Our memory tells us stories, that is, what we get to keep from our experiences is a story.
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Question: So investors shouldn't delude themselves about beating the market? Answer: They're just not going to do it. It's just not going to happen.
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You are more likely to learn something by finding surprises in your own behavior than by hearing surprising facts about people in general.
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An investment said to have an 80% chance of success sounds far more attractive than one with a 20% chance of failure. The mind can't easily recognize that they are the same.
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Optimism is normal, but some fortunate people are more optimistic than the rest of us. If you are genetically endowed with an optimistic bias, you hardly need to be told that you are a lucky person - you already feel fortunate.
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Hindsight bias makes surprises vanish.
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People just hate the idea of losing. Any loss, even a small one, is just so terrible to contemplate that they compensate by buying insurance, including totally absurd policies like air travel.
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We have no reason to expect the quality of intuition to improve with the importance of the problem. Perhaps the contrary: high-stake problems are likely to involve powerful emotions and strong impulses to action.
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If people can construct a simple and coherent story, they will feel confident regardless of how well grounded it is in reality.
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That's one of the real dangers of leader selection in many organizations: leaders are selected for overconfidence.
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Individual investors predictably flock to stocks in companies that are in the news.
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People are really happier with friends than they are with their families or their spouse or their child.
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