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The illusion that we understand the past fosters overconfidence in our ability to predict the future.

Daniel Kahneman

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Daniel Kahneman
Age: 90
Born: 1934
Born: March 5
Economist
Psychologist
University Teacher
Tel Aviv
Israel
D Kahneman
Predict
Illusion
Ability
Future
Understand
Past
Fosters

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I'm not a great believer in self-help.
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We can't live in a state of perpetual doubt, so we make up the best story possible and we live as if the story were true.
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Establish a closing ritual. Know when to stop working. Try to end each work day the same way, too. Straighten up your desk. Back up your computer. Make a list of what you need to do tomorrow.
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Experts don't know exactly where the boundaries of their expertise are.
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The easiest way to increase happiness is to control your use of time.
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The amount of success it takes for leaders to become overconfident isn't terribly large.
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The concept of loss aversion is certainly the most significant contribution of psychology to behavioral economics.
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We are far too willing to reject the belief that much of what we see in life is random.
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The most effortful forms of slow thinking are those that require you to think fast.
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Most things that couples disagree upon aren't worth more than a day's combat.
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People who are cognitively busy are also more likely to make selfish choices, use sexist language, and make superficial judgments in social situations.
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That's one of the real dangers of leader selection in many organizations: leaders are selected for overconfidence.
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