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The illusion that we understand the past fosters overconfidence in our ability to predict the future.
Daniel Kahneman
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Daniel Kahneman
Age: 90
Born: 1934
Born: March 5
Economist
Psychologist
University Teacher
Tel Aviv
Israel
D Kahneman
Ability
Future
Understand
Past
Fosters
Predict
Illusion
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There's a tendency to look at investments in isolation. Investors focus on the risk of individual securities.
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Experienced happiness refers to your feelings, to how happy you are as you live your life. In contrast, the satisfaction of the remembering self refers to your feelings when you think about your life.
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It is only a slight exaggeration to say that happiness is the experience of spending time with people you love and who love you.
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So your emotional state really has a lot to do with what you're thinking about and what you're paying attention to.
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If owning stocks is a long-term project for you, following their changes constantly is a very, very bad idea. It's the worst possible thing you can do, because people are so sensitive to short-term losses. If you count your money every day, you'll be miserable.
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This is the essence of intuitive heuristics: when faced with a difficult question, we often answer an easier one instead, usually without noticing the substitution.
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Political columnists and sports pundits are rewarded for being overconfident.
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The brain scientists are the wave of the future in the financial world. If you seek to maximize understanding, whether you're in academia or in the investment community, you'd better pay serious attention to them.
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