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The illusion that we understand the past fosters overconfidence in our ability to predict the future.

Daniel Kahneman

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Daniel Kahneman
Age: 90
Born: 1934
Born: March 5
Economist
Psychologist
University Teacher
Tel Aviv
Israel
D Kahneman
Understand
Past
Fosters
Predict
Illusion
Ability
Future

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It is the consistency of the information that matters for a good story, not its completeness. Indeed, you will often find that knowing little makes it easier to fit everything you know into a coherent pattern.
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Overconfidence is a powerful source of illusions, primarily determined by the quality and coherence of the story that you can construct, not by its validity.
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We have no reason to expect the quality of intuition to improve with the importance of the problem. Perhaps the contrary: high-stake problems are likely to involve powerful emotions and strong impulses to action.
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Employers who violate rules of fairness are punished by reduced productivity, and merchants who follow unfair pricing policies can expect to lose sales.
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Intelligence is not only the ability to reason it is also the ability to find relevant material in memory and to deploy attention when needed.
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All of us roughly know what memory is. I mean, memory is sort of the storage of the past. It's the storage of our personal experiences. It's a very big deal.
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Some memories come with a very compelling sense of truth about them. And that happens to be the case even with memories that are not true.
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... sometimes when you are asked a question that is difficult, the mind doesn't stay silent if it doesn't have the answer. The mind produces something, and what it produces very characteristically is the answer to an easier but related question.
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So your emotional state really has a lot to do with what you're thinking about and what you're paying attention to.
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We can be blind to the obvious, and we are also blind to our blindness.
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The easiest way to increase happiness is to control your use of time.
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Slow thinking has the feeling of something you do. It's deliberate.
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People talk of the new economy and of reinventing themselves in the workplace, and in that sense most of us are less secure.
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Psychologists really aim to be scientists, white-coat stuff, with elaborate statistics, running experiments.
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A person who has not made peace with his losses is likely to accept gambles that would be unacceptable to him otherwise.
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The concept of happiness has to be reorganised.
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It's very easy for trusted companies to mislead naive customers, and life insurance companies are trusted.
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A general limitation of the human mind is its imperfect ability to reconstruct past states of knowledge, or beliefs that have changed. Once you adopt a new view of the world (or any part of it), you immediately lose much of your ability to recall what you used to believe before your mind changed.
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People have little idea, by and large, of the investment world. They are convinced they have an advantage.
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It was always assumed I would be a professor. I grew up thinking it.
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