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You are more likely to learn something by finding surprises in your own behavior than by hearing surprising facts about people in general.
Daniel Kahneman
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Daniel Kahneman
Age: 90
Born: 1934
Born: March 5
Economist
Psychologist
University Teacher
Tel Aviv
Israel
D Kahneman
General
Surprises
Learn
Surprising
Facts
Likely
Something
Findings
People
Finding
Hearing
Surprise
Behavior
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The illusion that we understand the past fosters overconfidence in our ability to predict the future.
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Adaptation seems to be, to a substantial extent, a process of reallocating your attention.
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Slow thinking has the feeling of something you do. It's deliberate.
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When people believe a conclusion is true, they are also very likely to believe arguments that appear to support it, even when these arguments are unsound.
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It doesn't take many observations to think you've spotted a trend, and it's probably not a trend at all.
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We're generally overconfident in our opinions and our impressions and judgments.
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The amount of success it takes for leaders to become overconfident isn't terribly large.
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The confidence people have in their beliefs is not a measure of the quality of evidence but of the coherence of the story the mind has managed to construct.
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... sometimes when you are asked a question that is difficult, the mind doesn't stay silent if it doesn't have the answer. The mind produces something, and what it produces very characteristically is the answer to an easier but related question.
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We are far too willing to reject the belief that much of what we see in life is random.
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People who are cognitively busy are also more likely to make selfish choices, use sexist language, and make superficial judgments in social situations.
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It's clear that policymakers and economists are going to be interested in the measurement of well-being primarily as it correlates with health they also want to know whether researchers can validate subjective responses with physiological indices.
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It's nonsense to say money doesn't buy happiness, but people exaggerate the extent to which more money can buy more happiness.
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Courage is willingness to take the risk once you know the odds. Optimistic overconfidence means you are taking the risk because you don't know the odds. It's a big difference.
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Political columnists and sports pundits are rewarded for being overconfident.
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The brain scientists are the wave of the future in the financial world. If you seek to maximize understanding, whether you're in academia or in the investment community, you'd better pay serious attention to them.
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Experienced happiness refers to your feelings, to how happy you are as you live your life. In contrast, the satisfaction of the remembering self refers to your feelings when you think about your life.
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In a rising market, enough of your bad ideas will pay off so that you'll never learn that you should have fewer ideas.
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When everybody in a group is susceptible to similar biases, groups are inferior to individuals, because groups tend to be more extreme than individuals.
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Acquisition of skills requires a regular environment, an adequate opportunity to practice, and rapid and unequivocal feedback about the correctness of thoughts and actions.
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