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You are more likely to learn something by finding surprises in your own behavior than by hearing surprising facts about people in general.
Daniel Kahneman
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Daniel Kahneman
Age: 90
Born: 1934
Born: March 5
Economist
Psychologist
University Teacher
Tel Aviv
Israel
D Kahneman
Behavior
General
Surprises
Learn
Surprising
Facts
Likely
Something
Findings
People
Finding
Hearing
Surprise
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We are very influenced by completely automatic things that we have no control over, and we don't know we're doing it.
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The effort invested in 'getting it right' should be commensurate with the importance of the decision.
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The confidence that individuals have in their beliefs depends mostly on the quality of the story they can tell about what they see, even if they see little.
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The premise of this book is that it is easier to recognize other people's mistakes than your own.
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The amount of success it takes for leaders to become overconfident isn't terribly large.
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Acquisition of skills requires a regular environment, an adequate opportunity to practice, and rapid and unequivocal feedback about the correctness of thoughts and actions.
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People just hate the idea of losing. Any loss, even a small one, is just so terrible to contemplate that they compensate by buying insurance, including totally absurd policies like air travel.
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The planning fallacy is that you make a plan, which is usually a best-case scenario. Then you assume that the outcome will follow your plan, even when you should know better.
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Most things that couples disagree upon aren't worth more than a day's combat.
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Alternative descriptions of the same reality evoke different emotions and different associations.
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When people think of the outcomes of their decisions, they think much more short term than that. They think in terms of gains and losses.
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Most successful pundits are selected for being opinionated, because it's interesting, and the penalties for incorrect predictions are negligible. You can make predictions, and a year later people won't remember them.
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We're generally overconfident in our opinions and our impressions and judgments.
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It's nonsense to say money doesn't buy happiness, but people exaggerate the extent to which more money can buy more happiness.
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Divorced women, compared to married women, are less satisfied with their lives, which is not surprising. But they're actually more cheerful, when you look at the average mood they're in in the course of the day.
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If people can construct a simple and coherent story, they will feel confident regardless of how well grounded it is in reality.
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Friends are sometimes a big help when they share your feelings. In the context of decisions, the friends who will serve you best are those who understand your feelings but are not overly impressed by them.
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When everybody in a group is susceptible to similar biases, groups are inferior to individuals, because groups tend to be more extreme than individuals.
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One thing we have lost, that we had in the past, is a sense of progress, that things are getting better. There is a sense of volatility, but not of progress.
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You should not take your intuitions at face value.
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