Quote

The confidence that individuals have in their beliefs depends mostly on the quality of the story they can tell about what they see, even if they see little.

Daniel Kahneman

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Daniel Kahneman
Age: 90
Born: 1934
Born: March 5
Economist
Psychologist
University Teacher
Tel Aviv
Israel
D Kahneman
Stories
Individuals
Littles
Confidence
Little
Depends
Even
Quality
Belief
Story
Individual
Mostly
Tell
Beliefs

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Most successful pundits are selected for being opinionated, because it's interesting, and the penalties for incorrect predictions are negligible. You can make predictions, and a year later people won't remember them.
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Survival prospects are poor for an animal that is not suspicious of novelty.
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There are some conditions where you have to trust your intuition.
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There's a very good reason for why economics developed the way it did, and that is that in many situations, the assumption that people will exploit the opportunities available to them is very plausible, and it simplifies the analysis of how markets will behave.
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Overconfidence is a powerful source of illusions, primarily determined by the quality and coherence of the story that you can construct, not by its validity.
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Alternative descriptions of the same reality evoke different emotions and different associations.
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Most of the moments of our life - and I calculated, you know, the psychological present is said to be about three seconds long that means that, you know, in a life there are about 600 million of them in a month, there are about 600,000 - most of them don't leave a trace.
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Each additional day together is a gift. The end of the day means the end of hostilities, the recognition that the underlying shared values and commitment to the relationship trump the need for one last dig or self-righteous justification.
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Policy makers, like most people, normally feel that they already know all the psychology and all the sociology they are likely to need for their decisions. I don't think they are right, but that's the way it is.
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People should be conscious of the large contribution made by anything that gets people together easily in the reduction of loneliness and emotional well-being.
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The confidence people have in their beliefs is not a measure of the quality of evidence but of the coherence of the story the mind has managed to construct.
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So your emotional state really has a lot to do with what you're thinking about and what you're paying attention to.
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Poverty is clearly one source of emotional suffering, but there are others, like loneliness. A policy to reduce the loneliness of the elderly would certainly reduce suffering.
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Acquisition of skills requires a regular environment, an adequate opportunity to practice, and rapid and unequivocal feedback about the correctness of thoughts and actions.
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There's a tendency to look at investments in isolation. Investors focus on the risk of individual securities.
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Through some combination of culture and biology, our minds are intuitively receptive to religion.
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I enjoy being active, but I look forward to the day when I can retire to the Internet.
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A large portion of the weekend effects is explained by differences in the amount of time spent with friends or family between weekends and weekdays.
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