Quote

The confidence that individuals have in their beliefs depends mostly on the quality of the story they can tell about what they see, even if they see little.

Daniel Kahneman

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Daniel Kahneman
Age: 90
Born: 1934
Born: March 5
Economist
Psychologist
University Teacher
Tel Aviv
Israel
D Kahneman
Belief
Story
Individual
Mostly
Tell
Beliefs
Stories
Individuals
Littles
Confidence
Little
Depends
Even
Quality

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Most things that couples disagree upon aren't worth more than a day's combat.
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The planning fallacy is that you make a plan, which is usually a best-case scenario. Then you assume that the outcome will follow your plan, even when you should know better.
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When action is needed, optimism, even of the mildly delusional variety, may be a good thing.
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You should not take your intuitions at face value.
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Each additional day together is a gift. The end of the day means the end of hostilities, the recognition that the underlying shared values and commitment to the relationship trump the need for one last dig or self-righteous justification.
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Intuitive diagnosis is reliable when people have a lot of relevant feedback. But people are very often willing to make intuitive diagnoses even when they're very likely to be wrong.
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I have always emphasized the willingness to discard.
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Alternative descriptions of the same reality evoke different emotions and different associations.
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We can't live in a state of perpetual doubt, so we make up the best story possible and we live as if the story were true.
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People who are cognitively busy are also more likely to make selfish choices, use sexist language, and make superficial judgments in social situations.
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I used to hold a unitary view, in which I proposed that only experienced happiness matters, and that life satisfaction is a fallible estimate of true happiness.
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All of us roughly know what memory is. I mean, memory is sort of the storage of the past. It's the storage of our personal experiences. It's a very big deal.
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Many people will admit that they made a mistake [putting money in dot-coms or telecoms at their peak] But that doesn’t mean that they’ve changed their mind about anything in particular. It doesn’t mean that they are now able to avoid that mistake.
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Individual investors predictably flock to stocks in companies that are in the news.
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A person who has not made peace with his losses is likely to accept gambles that would be unacceptable to him otherwise.
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It is only a slight exaggeration to say that happiness is the experience of spending time with people you love and who love you.
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We are far too willing to reject the belief that much of what we see in life is random.
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The illusion that we understand the past fosters overconfidence in our ability to predict the future.
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Courage is willingness to take the risk once you know the odds. Optimistic overconfidence means you are taking the risk because you don't know the odds. It's a big difference.
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A general limitation of the human mind is its imperfect ability to reconstruct past states of knowledge, or beliefs that have changed. Once you adopt a new view of the world (or any part of it), you immediately lose much of your ability to recall what you used to believe before your mind changed.
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