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We have no reason to expect the quality of intuition to improve with the importance of the problem. Perhaps the contrary: high-stake problems are likely to involve powerful emotions and strong impulses to action.
Daniel Kahneman
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Daniel Kahneman
Age: 90
Born: 1934
Born: March 5
Economist
Psychologist
University Teacher
Tel Aviv
Israel
D Kahneman
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Contrary
Stake
Strong
Expect
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Action
Importance
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Problem
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Intuition
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Problems
Improve
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Impulses
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We have associations to things. We have, you know, we have associations to tables and to - and to dogs and to cats and to Harvard professors, and that's the way the mind works. It's an association machine.
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Overconfidence is a powerful source of illusions, primarily determined by the quality and coherence of the story that you can construct, not by its validity.
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The illusion that we understand the past fosters overconfidence in our ability to predict the future.
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When everybody in a group is susceptible to similar biases, groups are inferior to individuals, because groups tend to be more extreme than individuals.
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All of us would be better investors if we just made fewer decisions.
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True intuitive expertise is learned from prolonged experience with good feedback on mistakes.
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When people believe a conclusion is true, they are also very likely to believe arguments that appear to support it, even when these arguments are unsound.
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People talk of the new economy and of reinventing themselves in the workplace, and in that sense most of us are less secure.
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Some memories come with a very compelling sense of truth about them. And that happens to be the case even with memories that are not true.
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Money does not buy you happiness, but lack of money certainly buys you misery.
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