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We have no reason to expect the quality of intuition to improve with the importance of the problem. Perhaps the contrary: high-stake problems are likely to involve powerful emotions and strong impulses to action.
Daniel Kahneman
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Daniel Kahneman
Age: 90
Born: 1934
Born: March 5
Economist
Psychologist
University Teacher
Tel Aviv
Israel
D Kahneman
Emotion
Impulse
Quality
Emotions
High
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Impulses
Powerful
Contrary
Stake
Strong
Expect
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Action
Importance
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Improve
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Individual investors predictably flock to stocks in companies that are in the news.
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What happens with fear is that probability doesn't matter very much. That is, once I have raised the possibility that something terrible can happen to your child, even though the possibility is remote, you may find it very difficult to think of anything else. Emotion becomes dominant.
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When people believe a conclusion is true, they are also very likely to believe arguments that appear to support it, even when these arguments are unsound.
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Question: So investors shouldn't delude themselves about beating the market? Answer: They're just not going to do it. It's just not going to happen.
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Poverty is clearly one source of emotional suffering, but there are others, like loneliness. A policy to reduce the loneliness of the elderly would certainly reduce suffering.
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People who are cognitively busy are also more likely to make selfish choices, use sexist language, and make superficial judgments in social situations.
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If people can construct a simple and coherent story, they will feel confident regardless of how well grounded it is in reality.
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The premise of this book is that it is easier to recognize other people's mistakes than your own.
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It is only a slight exaggeration to say that happiness is the experience of spending time with people you love and who love you.
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The planning fallacy is that you make a plan, which is usually a best-case scenario. Then you assume that the outcome will follow your plan, even when you should know better.
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We are very influenced by completely automatic things that we have no control over, and we don't know we're doing it.
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Below an income of ... $60,000 a year, people are unhappy, and they get progressively unhappier the poorer they get. Above that, we get an absolutely flat line. ... Money does not buy you experiential happiness, but lack of money certainly buys you misery.
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