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We have no reason to expect the quality of intuition to improve with the importance of the problem. Perhaps the contrary: high-stake problems are likely to involve powerful emotions and strong impulses to action.

Daniel Kahneman

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Daniel Kahneman
Age: 90
Born: 1934
Born: March 5
Economist
Psychologist
University Teacher
Tel Aviv
Israel
D Kahneman
Powerful
Contrary
Stake
Strong
Expect
Involve
Action
Importance
Stakes
Problem
Perhaps
Intuition
Reason
Problems
Improve
Emotion
Impulse
Quality
Emotions
High
Likely
Impulses

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A person who has not made peace with his losses is likely to accept gambles that would be unacceptable to him otherwise.
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If owning stocks is a long-term project for you, following their changes constantly is a very, very bad idea. It's the worst possible thing you can do, because people are so sensitive to short-term losses. If you count your money every day, you'll be miserable.
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The confidence that individuals have in their beliefs depends mostly on the quality of the story they can tell about what they see, even if they see little.
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Survival prospects are poor for an animal that is not suspicious of novelty.
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Often, the most enjoyable part of an activity is the anticipation.
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The easiest way to increase happiness is to control your use of time.
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There's a very good reason for why economics developed the way it did, and that is that in many situations, the assumption that people will exploit the opportunities available to them is very plausible, and it simplifies the analysis of how markets will behave.
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I have always emphasized the willingness to discard.
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If people can construct a simple and coherent story, they will feel confident regardless of how well grounded it is in reality.
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Most successful pundits are selected for being opinionated, because it's interesting, and the penalties for incorrect predictions are negligible. You can make predictions, and a year later people won't remember them.
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Individual investors predictably flock to stocks in companies that are in the news.
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People exaggerate their confidence in their plans - something we call the planning fallacy... The existence of the plan tends to induce overconfidence.
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Groups tend to be more extreme than individuals.
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Friends are sometimes a big help when they share your feelings. In the context of decisions, the friends who will serve you best are those who understand your feelings but are not overly impressed by them.
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Slow thinking has the feeling of something you do. It's deliberate.
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A large portion of the weekend effects is explained by differences in the amount of time spent with friends or family between weekends and weekdays.
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We can't live in a state of perpetual doubt, so we make up the best story possible and we live as if the story were true.
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The most effortful forms of slow thinking are those that require you to think fast.
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There's a tendency to look at investments in isolation. Investors focus on the risk of individual securities.
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Odd as it may seem, I am my remembering self, and the experiencing self, who does my living, is like a stranger to me.
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