Quote

The planning fallacy is that you make a plan, which is usually a best-case scenario. Then you assume that the outcome will follow your plan, even when you should know better.

Daniel Kahneman

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Daniel Kahneman
Age: 90
Born: 1934
Born: March 5
Economist
Psychologist
University Teacher
Tel Aviv
Israel
D Kahneman
Plans
Outcomes
Cases
Assume
Best
Planning
Better
Assuming
Even
Plan
Scenario
Make
Case
Fallacy
Follow
Scenarios
Usually
Outcome

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Odd as it may seem, I am my remembering self, and the experiencing self, who does my living, is like a stranger to me.
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People are really happier with friends than they are with their families or their spouse or their child.
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Most of the moments of our life - and I calculated, you know, the psychological present is said to be about three seconds long that means that, you know, in a life there are about 600 million of them in a month, there are about 600,000 - most of them don't leave a trace.
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Courage is willingness to take the risk once you know the odds. Optimistic overconfidence means you are taking the risk because you don't know the odds. It's a big difference.
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Researchers who studied a thousand Dutch vacationers concluded that by far the greatest amount of happiness extracted from the vacation is derived from the anticipation period.
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True intuitive expertise is learned from prolonged experience with good feedback on mistakes.
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Individual investors predictably flock to stocks in companies that are in the news.
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People just hate the idea of losing. Any loss, even a small one, is just so terrible to contemplate that they compensate by buying insurance, including totally absurd policies like air travel.
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After a crisis we tell ourselves we understand why it happened and maintain the illusion that the world is understandable. In fact, we should accept the world is incomprehensible much of the time.
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It is only a slight exaggeration to say that happiness is the experience of spending time with people you love and who love you.
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Many people will admit that they made a mistake [putting money in dot-coms or telecoms at their peak] But that doesn’t mean that they’ve changed their mind about anything in particular. It doesn’t mean that they are now able to avoid that mistake.
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If owning stocks is a long-term project for you, following their changes constantly is a very, very bad idea. It's the worst possible thing you can do, because people are so sensitive to short-term losses. If you count your money every day, you'll be miserable.
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If you can't take the time for a vacation right now, or even a night out with friends, put something on the calendar - even if it's a month or a year down the road. Then whenever you need a boost of happiness, remind yourself about it.
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In essence, the optimistic style involves taking credit for successes but little blame for failures.
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Below an income of ... $60,000 a year, people are unhappy, and they get progressively unhappier the poorer they get. Above that, we get an absolutely flat line. ... Money does not buy you experiential happiness, but lack of money certainly buys you misery.
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Each additional day together is a gift. The end of the day means the end of hostilities, the recognition that the underlying shared values and commitment to the relationship trump the need for one last dig or self-righteous justification.
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When people believe a conclusion is true, they are also very likely to believe arguments that appear to support it, even when these arguments are unsound.
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When you look at the books about well-being, you see one word - it's happiness. People do not distinguish.
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Through some combination of culture and biology, our minds are intuitively receptive to religion.
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Question: So investors shouldn't delude themselves about beating the market? Answer: They're just not going to do it. It's just not going to happen.
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