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Most successful pundits are selected for being opinionated, because it's interesting, and the penalties for incorrect predictions are negligible. You can make predictions, and a year later people won't remember them.

Daniel Kahneman

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Daniel Kahneman
Age: 90
Born: 1934
Born: March 5
Economist
Psychologist
University Teacher
Tel Aviv
Israel
D Kahneman
People
Penalties
Later
Successful
Negligible
Year
Pundits
Interesting
Incorrect
Remember
Opinionated
Years
Selected
Make
Predictions

More quotes by Daniel Kahneman

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If individuals are rational, there is no need to protect them against their own choices.
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When everybody in a group is susceptible to similar biases, groups are inferior to individuals, because groups tend to be more extreme than individuals.
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We can be blind to the obvious, and we are also blind to our blindness.
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Most things that couples disagree upon aren't worth more than a day's combat.
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A person who has not made peace with his losses is likely to accept gambles that would be unacceptable to him otherwise.
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Researchers who studied a thousand Dutch vacationers concluded that by far the greatest amount of happiness extracted from the vacation is derived from the anticipation period.
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So your emotional state really has a lot to do with what you're thinking about and what you're paying attention to.
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It was always assumed I would be a professor. I grew up thinking it.
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Managers think of themselves as captains of a ship on a stormy sea. Risk for them is danger, but they are fighting it, very controlled.
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The planning fallacy is that you make a plan, which is usually a best-case scenario. Then you assume that the outcome will follow your plan, even when you should know better.
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There are domains in which expertise is not possible. Stock picking is a good example. And in long-term political strategic forecasting, it's been shown that experts are just not better than a dice-throwing monkey.
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If you're going to be unreligious, it's likely going to be due to reflecting on it and finding some things that are hard to believe.
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The most effortful forms of slow thinking are those that require you to think fast.
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My interest in well-being evolved from my interest in decision making - from raising the question of whether people know what they will want in the future and whether the things that people want for themselves will make them happy.
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The premise of this book is that it is easier to recognize other people's mistakes than your own.
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An investment said to have an 80% chance of success sounds far more attractive than one with a 20% chance of failure. The mind can't easily recognize that they are the same.
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Alternative descriptions of the same reality evoke different emotions and different associations.
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Adaptation seems to be, to a substantial extent, a process of reallocating your attention.
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People should be conscious of the large contribution made by anything that gets people together easily in the reduction of loneliness and emotional well-being.
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Optimistic people play a disproportionate role in shaping our lives. Their decisions make a difference they are inventors, entrepreneurs, political and military leaders - not average people. They got to where they are by seeking challenges and taking risks.
Daniel Kahneman