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Most successful pundits are selected for being opinionated, because it's interesting, and the penalties for incorrect predictions are negligible. You can make predictions, and a year later people won't remember them.
Daniel Kahneman
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Daniel Kahneman
Age: 90
Born: 1934
Born: March 5
Economist
Psychologist
University Teacher
Tel Aviv
Israel
D Kahneman
Interesting
Incorrect
Remember
Opinionated
Years
Selected
Make
Predictions
People
Penalties
Later
Successful
Negligible
Year
Pundits
More quotes by Daniel Kahneman
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Intelligence is not only the ability to reason it is also the ability to find relevant material in memory and to deploy attention when needed.
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I enjoy being active, but I look forward to the day when I can retire to the Internet.
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If people can construct a simple and coherent story, they will feel confident regardless of how well grounded it is in reality.
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My interest in well-being evolved from my interest in decision making - from raising the question of whether people know what they will want in the future and whether the things that people want for themselves will make them happy.
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I used to hold a unitary view, in which I proposed that only experienced happiness matters, and that life satisfaction is a fallible estimate of true happiness.
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If you're going to be unreligious, it's likely going to be due to reflecting on it and finding some things that are hard to believe.
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In a rising market, enough of your bad ideas will pay off so that you'll never learn that you should have fewer ideas.
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Individual investors predictably flock to stocks in companies that are in the news.
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Researchers who studied a thousand Dutch vacationers concluded that by far the greatest amount of happiness extracted from the vacation is derived from the anticipation period.
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A large portion of the weekend effects is explained by differences in the amount of time spent with friends or family between weekends and weekdays.
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Intuitive diagnosis is reliable when people have a lot of relevant feedback. But people are very often willing to make intuitive diagnoses even when they're very likely to be wrong.
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I have always emphasized the willingness to discard.
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Managers think of themselves as captains of a ship on a stormy sea. Risk for them is danger, but they are fighting it, very controlled.
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People exaggerate their confidence in their plans - something we call the planning fallacy... The existence of the plan tends to induce overconfidence.
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The concept of happiness has to be reorganised.
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You are more likely to learn something by finding surprises in your own behavior than by hearing surprising facts about people in general.
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You're surprised by something, but you don't really know what surprised you you recognize someone, but you don't really know what cues cause you to recognize that person.
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In essence, the optimistic style involves taking credit for successes but little blame for failures.
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