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Most successful pundits are selected for being opinionated, because it's interesting, and the penalties for incorrect predictions are negligible. You can make predictions, and a year later people won't remember them.
Daniel Kahneman
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Daniel Kahneman
Age: 90
Born: 1934
Born: March 5
Economist
Psychologist
University Teacher
Tel Aviv
Israel
D Kahneman
Interesting
Incorrect
Remember
Opinionated
Years
Selected
Make
Predictions
People
Penalties
Later
Successful
Negligible
Year
Pundits
More quotes by Daniel Kahneman
We're generally overconfident in our opinions and our impressions and judgments.
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It is only a slight exaggeration to say that happiness is the experience of spending time with people you love and who love you.
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Policy makers, like most people, normally feel that they already know all the psychology and all the sociology they are likely to need for their decisions. I don't think they are right, but that's the way it is.
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Managers think of themselves as captains of a ship on a stormy sea. Risk for them is danger, but they are fighting it, very controlled.
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Researchers who studied a thousand Dutch vacationers concluded that by far the greatest amount of happiness extracted from the vacation is derived from the anticipation period.
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Psychologists really aim to be scientists, white-coat stuff, with elaborate statistics, running experiments.
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We have associations to things. We have, you know, we have associations to tables and to - and to dogs and to cats and to Harvard professors, and that's the way the mind works. It's an association machine.
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Poverty is clearly one source of emotional suffering, but there are others, like loneliness. A policy to reduce the loneliness of the elderly would certainly reduce suffering.
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After a crisis we tell ourselves we understand why it happened and maintain the illusion that the world is understandable. In fact, we should accept the world is incomprehensible much of the time.
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Through some combination of culture and biology, our minds are intuitively receptive to religion.
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Intuitive diagnosis is reliable when people have a lot of relevant feedback. But people are very often willing to make intuitive diagnoses even when they're very likely to be wrong.
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Most people are highly optimistic most of the time.
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Groups tend to be more extreme than individuals.
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... sometimes when you are asked a question that is difficult, the mind doesn't stay silent if it doesn't have the answer. The mind produces something, and what it produces very characteristically is the answer to an easier but related question.
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People have little idea, by and large, of the investment world. They are convinced they have an advantage.
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The confidence that individuals have in their beliefs depends mostly on the quality of the story they can tell about what they see, even if they see little.
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We associate leadership with decisiveness. That perception of leadership pushes people to make decisions fairly quickly, lest they be seen as dithering and indecisive.
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All of us would be better investors if we just made fewer decisions.
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The amount of success it takes for leaders to become overconfident isn't terribly large.
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Most things that couples disagree upon aren't worth more than a day's combat.
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