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Most successful pundits are selected for being opinionated, because it's interesting, and the penalties for incorrect predictions are negligible. You can make predictions, and a year later people won't remember them.
Daniel Kahneman
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Daniel Kahneman
Age: 90
Born: 1934
Born: March 5
Economist
Psychologist
University Teacher
Tel Aviv
Israel
D Kahneman
Year
Pundits
Interesting
Incorrect
Remember
Opinionated
Years
Selected
Make
Predictions
People
Penalties
Later
Successful
Negligible
More quotes by Daniel Kahneman
The illusion that we understand the past fosters overconfidence in our ability to predict the future.
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Friends are sometimes a big help when they share your feelings. In the context of decisions, the friends who will serve you best are those who understand your feelings but are not overly impressed by them.
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We have associations to things. We have, you know, we have associations to tables and to - and to dogs and to cats and to Harvard professors, and that's the way the mind works. It's an association machine.
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That's one of the real dangers of leader selection in many organizations: leaders are selected for overconfidence.
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If you're going to be unreligious, it's likely going to be due to reflecting on it and finding some things that are hard to believe.
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Adaptation seems to be, to a substantial extent, a process of reallocating your attention.
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The evidence is unequivocal, there's a great deal more luck than skill in people getting very rich.
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You are more likely to learn something by finding surprises in your own behavior than by hearing surprising facts about people in general.
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Establish a closing ritual. Know when to stop working. Try to end each work day the same way, too. Straighten up your desk. Back up your computer. Make a list of what you need to do tomorrow.
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Intelligence is not only the ability to reason it is also the ability to find relevant material in memory and to deploy attention when needed.
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What happens with fear is that probability doesn't matter very much. That is, once I have raised the possibility that something terrible can happen to your child, even though the possibility is remote, you may find it very difficult to think of anything else. Emotion becomes dominant.
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Often, the most enjoyable part of an activity is the anticipation.
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Individual investors predictably flock to stocks in companies that are in the news.
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Our memory tells us stories, that is, what we get to keep from our experiences is a story.
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The confidence that individuals have in their beliefs depends mostly on the quality of the story they can tell about what they see, even if they see little.
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Researchers who studied a thousand Dutch vacationers concluded that by far the greatest amount of happiness extracted from the vacation is derived from the anticipation period.
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After a crisis we tell ourselves we understand why it happened and maintain the illusion that the world is understandable. In fact, we should accept the world is incomprehensible much of the time.
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I have always emphasized the willingness to discard.
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If individuals are rational, there is no need to protect them against their own choices.
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If people can construct a simple and coherent story, they will feel confident regardless of how well grounded it is in reality.
Daniel Kahneman
