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Most successful pundits are selected for being opinionated, because it's interesting, and the penalties for incorrect predictions are negligible. You can make predictions, and a year later people won't remember them.

Daniel Kahneman

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Daniel Kahneman
Age: 90
Born: 1934
Born: March 5
Economist
Psychologist
University Teacher
Tel Aviv
Israel
D Kahneman
People
Penalties
Later
Successful
Negligible
Year
Pundits
Interesting
Incorrect
Remember
Opinionated
Years
Selected
Make
Predictions

More quotes by Daniel Kahneman

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It was always assumed I would be a professor. I grew up thinking it.
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Often, the most enjoyable part of an activity is the anticipation.
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It is only a slight exaggeration to say that happiness is the experience of spending time with people you love and who love you.
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It's very easy for trusted companies to mislead naive customers, and life insurance companies are trusted.
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People are very good [at] thinking about agents. The mind is set really beautifully to think about agents. Agents have traits. Agents have behaviors. We understand agents. We form global impression of their personalities. We are really not very good at remembering sentences where the subject of the sentence is an abstract notion.
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The confidence people have in their beliefs is not a measure of the quality of evidence but of the coherence of the story the mind has managed to construct.
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There are domains in which expertise is not possible. Stock picking is a good example. And in long-term political strategic forecasting, it's been shown that experts are just not better than a dice-throwing monkey.
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The concept of happiness has to be reorganised.
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There are some conditions where you have to trust your intuition.
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In a rising market, enough of your bad ideas will pay off so that you'll never learn that you should have fewer ideas.
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The most effortful forms of slow thinking are those that require you to think fast.
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When action is needed, optimism, even of the mildly delusional variety, may be a good thing.
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Policy makers, like most people, normally feel that they already know all the psychology and all the sociology they are likely to need for their decisions. I don't think they are right, but that's the way it is.
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So your emotional state really has a lot to do with what you're thinking about and what you're paying attention to.
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Managers think of themselves as captains of a ship on a stormy sea. Risk for them is danger, but they are fighting it, very controlled.
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By their very nature, heuristic shortcuts will produce biases, and that is true for both humans and artificial intelligence, but the heuristics of AI are not necessarily the human ones.
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If people can construct a simple and coherent story, they will feel confident regardless of how well grounded it is in reality.
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Doubting what you see is a very odd experience. And doubting what you remember is a little less odd than doubting what you see. But it's also a pretty odd experience, because some memories come with a very compelling sense of truth about them, and that happens to be the case even for memories that are not true.
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Most people are highly optimistic most of the time.
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I would not advise people to buy a car or house without making a list. You will probably improve your intuitions by making a list and then sleeping on it.
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