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Except for some effects that I attribute mostly to age, my intuitive thinking is just as prone to overconfidence, extreme predictions, and the planning fallacy as it was before I made a study of these issues.
Daniel Kahneman
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Daniel Kahneman
Age: 90
Born: 1934
Born: March 5
Economist
Psychologist
University Teacher
Tel Aviv
Israel
D Kahneman
Issues
Intuitive
Study
Attributes
Age
Extreme
Made
Mostly
Thinking
Extremes
Prone
Planning
Fallacy
Except
Attribute
Effects
Predictions
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Groups tend to be more extreme than individuals.
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Managers think of themselves as captains of a ship on a stormy sea. Risk for them is danger, but they are fighting it, very controlled.
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True intuitive expertise is learned from prolonged experience with good feedback on mistakes.
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The most effortful forms of slow thinking are those that require you to think fast.
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Divorced women, compared to married women, are less satisfied with their lives, which is not surprising. But they're actually more cheerful, when you look at the average mood they're in in the course of the day.
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Most people are highly optimistic most of the time.
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The effort invested in 'getting it right' should be commensurate with the importance of the decision.
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We are far too willing to reject the belief that much of what we see in life is random.
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We are very influenced by completely automatic things that we have no control over, and we don't know we're doing it.
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Laziness is built deep into our nature.
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The dominance of conclusions over arguments is most pronounced where emotions are involved.
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The concept of loss aversion is certainly the most significant contribution of psychology to behavioral economics.
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When everybody in a group is susceptible to similar biases, groups are inferior to individuals, because groups tend to be more extreme than individuals.
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It doesn't take many observations to think you've spotted a trend, and it's probably not a trend at all.
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If you can't take the time for a vacation right now, or even a night out with friends, put something on the calendar - even if it's a month or a year down the road. Then whenever you need a boost of happiness, remind yourself about it.
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An investment said to have an 80% chance of success sounds far more attractive than one with a 20% chance of failure. The mind can't easily recognize that they are the same.
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All of us roughly know what memory is. I mean, memory is sort of the storage of the past. It's the storage of our personal experiences. It's a very big deal.
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An individual who expresses high confidence probably has a good story, which may or may not be true.
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