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Except for some effects that I attribute mostly to age, my intuitive thinking is just as prone to overconfidence, extreme predictions, and the planning fallacy as it was before I made a study of these issues.

Daniel Kahneman

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Daniel Kahneman
Age: 90
Born: 1934
Born: March 5
Economist
Psychologist
University Teacher
Tel Aviv
Israel
D Kahneman
Issues
Intuitive
Study
Attributes
Age
Extreme
Made
Mostly
Thinking
Extremes
Prone
Planning
Fallacy
Except
Attribute
Effects
Predictions

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Many people will admit that they made a mistake [putting money in dot-coms or telecoms at their peak] But that doesn’t mean that they’ve changed their mind about anything in particular. It doesn’t mean that they are now able to avoid that mistake.
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Friends are sometimes a big help when they share your feelings. In the context of decisions, the friends who will serve you best are those who understand your feelings but are not overly impressed by them.
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Overconfidence is a powerful source of illusions, primarily determined by the quality and coherence of the story that you can construct, not by its validity.
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We can't live in a state of perpetual doubt, so we make up the best story possible and we live as if the story were true.
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People like leaders who look like they are dominant, optimistic, friendly to their friends, and quick on the trigger when it comes to enemies. They like boldness and despise the appearance of timidity and protracted doubt.
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A person who has not made peace with his losses is likely to accept gambles that would be unacceptable to him otherwise.
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Individual investors predictably flock to stocks in companies that are in the news.
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The most effortful forms of slow thinking are those that require you to think fast.
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Most things that couples disagree upon aren't worth more than a day's combat.
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That's one of the real dangers of leader selection in many organizations: leaders are selected for overconfidence.
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We are very influenced by completely automatic things that we have no control over, and we don't know we're doing it.
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All of us roughly know what memory is. I mean, memory is sort of the storage of the past. It's the storage of our personal experiences. It's a very big deal.
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It's very easy for trusted companies to mislead naive customers, and life insurance companies are trusted.
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Optimism is normal, but some fortunate people are more optimistic than the rest of us. If you are genetically endowed with an optimistic bias, you hardly need to be told that you are a lucky person - you already feel fortunate.
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This is the essence of intuitive heuristics: when faced with a difficult question, we often answer an easier one instead, usually without noticing the substitution.
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Odd as it may seem, I am my remembering self, and the experiencing self, who does my living, is like a stranger to me.
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I'm not a great believer in self-help.
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Doubting what you see is a very odd experience. And doubting what you remember is a little less odd than doubting what you see. But it's also a pretty odd experience, because some memories come with a very compelling sense of truth about them, and that happens to be the case even for memories that are not true.
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We're generally overconfident in our opinions and our impressions and judgments.
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We have no reason to expect the quality of intuition to improve with the importance of the problem. Perhaps the contrary: high-stake problems are likely to involve powerful emotions and strong impulses to action.
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