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Except for some effects that I attribute mostly to age, my intuitive thinking is just as prone to overconfidence, extreme predictions, and the planning fallacy as it was before I made a study of these issues.

Daniel Kahneman

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Daniel Kahneman
Age: 90
Born: 1934
Born: March 5
Economist
Psychologist
University Teacher
Tel Aviv
Israel
D Kahneman
Made
Mostly
Thinking
Extremes
Prone
Planning
Fallacy
Except
Attribute
Effects
Predictions
Issues
Intuitive
Study
Attributes
Age
Extreme

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What happens with fear is that probability doesn't matter very much. That is, once I have raised the possibility that something terrible can happen to your child, even though the possibility is remote, you may find it very difficult to think of anything else. Emotion becomes dominant.
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The confidence people have in their beliefs is not a measure of the quality of evidence but of the coherence of the story the mind has managed to construct.
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In a rising market, enough of your bad ideas will pay off so that you'll never learn that you should have fewer ideas.
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That's one of the real dangers of leader selection in many organizations: leaders are selected for overconfidence.
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People should be conscious of the large contribution made by anything that gets people together easily in the reduction of loneliness and emotional well-being.
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The easiest way to increase happiness is to control your use of time.
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When people believe a conclusion is true, they are also very likely to believe arguments that appear to support it, even when these arguments are unsound.
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Many people will admit that they made a mistake [putting money in dot-coms or telecoms at their peak] But that doesn’t mean that they’ve changed their mind about anything in particular. It doesn’t mean that they are now able to avoid that mistake.
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It's clear that policymakers and economists are going to be interested in the measurement of well-being primarily as it correlates with health they also want to know whether researchers can validate subjective responses with physiological indices.
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In essence, the optimistic style involves taking credit for successes but little blame for failures.
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Poverty is clearly one source of emotional suffering, but there are others, like loneliness. A policy to reduce the loneliness of the elderly would certainly reduce suffering.
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Hindsight bias makes surprises vanish.
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You're surprised by something, but you don't really know what surprised you you recognize someone, but you don't really know what cues cause you to recognize that person.
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Question: So investors shouldn't delude themselves about beating the market? Answer: They're just not going to do it. It's just not going to happen.
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I used to hold a unitary view, in which I proposed that only experienced happiness matters, and that life satisfaction is a fallible estimate of true happiness.
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Most things that couples disagree upon aren't worth more than a day's combat.
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When action is needed, optimism, even of the mildly delusional variety, may be a good thing.
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Alternative descriptions of the same reality evoke different emotions and different associations.
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Individual investors predictably flock to stocks in companies that are in the news.
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The most effortful forms of slow thinking are those that require you to think fast.
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