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Intuitive diagnosis is reliable when people have a lot of relevant feedback. But people are very often willing to make intuitive diagnoses even when they're very likely to be wrong.
Daniel Kahneman
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Daniel Kahneman
Age: 90
Born: 1934
Born: March 5
Economist
Psychologist
University Teacher
Tel Aviv
Israel
D Kahneman
Often
Diagnosis
Even
Reliable
Make
Feedback
People
Intuitive
Relevant
Likely
Willing
Wrong
Diagnoses
More quotes by Daniel Kahneman
We can be blind to the obvious, and we are also blind to our blindness.
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Courage is willingness to take the risk once you know the odds. Optimistic overconfidence means you are taking the risk because you don't know the odds. It's a big difference.
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Acquisition of skills requires a regular environment, an adequate opportunity to practice, and rapid and unequivocal feedback about the correctness of thoughts and actions.
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There's a very good reason for why economics developed the way it did, and that is that in many situations, the assumption that people will exploit the opportunities available to them is very plausible, and it simplifies the analysis of how markets will behave.
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Odd as it may seem, I am my remembering self, and the experiencing self, who does my living, is like a stranger to me.
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If people can construct a simple and coherent story, they will feel confident regardless of how well grounded it is in reality.
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I would not advise people to buy a car or house without making a list. You will probably improve your intuitions by making a list and then sleeping on it.
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The effort invested in 'getting it right' should be commensurate with the importance of the decision.
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Hindsight bias makes surprises vanish.
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Our memory tells us stories, that is, what we get to keep from our experiences is a story.
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Groups tend to be more extreme than individuals.
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Experts don't know exactly where the boundaries of their expertise are.
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We associate leadership with decisiveness. That perception of leadership pushes people to make decisions fairly quickly, lest they be seen as dithering and indecisive.
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In a rising market, enough of your bad ideas will pay off so that you'll never learn that you should have fewer ideas.
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All of us roughly know what memory is. I mean, memory is sort of the storage of the past. It's the storage of our personal experiences. It's a very big deal.
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Managers think of themselves as captains of a ship on a stormy sea. Risk for them is danger, but they are fighting it, very controlled.
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Employers who violate rules of fairness are punished by reduced productivity, and merchants who follow unfair pricing policies can expect to lose sales.
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We have associations to things. We have, you know, we have associations to tables and to - and to dogs and to cats and to Harvard professors, and that's the way the mind works. It's an association machine.
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One thing we have lost, that we had in the past, is a sense of progress, that things are getting better. There is a sense of volatility, but not of progress.
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In essence, the optimistic style involves taking credit for successes but little blame for failures.
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