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Intuitive diagnosis is reliable when people have a lot of relevant feedback. But people are very often willing to make intuitive diagnoses even when they're very likely to be wrong.
Daniel Kahneman
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Daniel Kahneman
Age: 90
Born: 1934
Born: March 5
Economist
Psychologist
University Teacher
Tel Aviv
Israel
D Kahneman
Willing
Wrong
Diagnoses
Often
Diagnosis
Even
Reliable
Make
Feedback
People
Intuitive
Relevant
Likely
More quotes by Daniel Kahneman
It is the consistency of the information that matters for a good story, not its completeness. Indeed, you will often find that knowing little makes it easier to fit everything you know into a coherent pattern.
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It's very easy for trusted companies to mislead naive customers, and life insurance companies are trusted.
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I'm not a great believer in self-help.
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Employers who violate rules of fairness are punished by reduced productivity, and merchants who follow unfair pricing policies can expect to lose sales.
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Each additional day together is a gift. The end of the day means the end of hostilities, the recognition that the underlying shared values and commitment to the relationship trump the need for one last dig or self-righteous justification.
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The most effortful forms of slow thinking are those that require you to think fast.
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Researchers who studied a thousand Dutch vacationers concluded that by far the greatest amount of happiness extracted from the vacation is derived from the anticipation period.
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Optimistic people play a disproportionate role in shaping our lives. Their decisions make a difference they are inventors, entrepreneurs, political and military leaders - not average people. They got to where they are by seeking challenges and taking risks.
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People are really happier with friends than they are with their families or their spouse or their child.
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If you're going to be unreligious, it's likely going to be due to reflecting on it and finding some things that are hard to believe.
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You're surprised by something, but you don't really know what surprised you you recognize someone, but you don't really know what cues cause you to recognize that person.
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One thing we have lost, that we had in the past, is a sense of progress, that things are getting better. There is a sense of volatility, but not of progress.
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After a crisis we tell ourselves we understand why it happened and maintain the illusion that the world is understandable. In fact, we should accept the world is incomprehensible much of the time.
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It doesn't take many observations to think you've spotted a trend, and it's probably not a trend at all.
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Most successful pundits are selected for being opinionated, because it's interesting, and the penalties for incorrect predictions are negligible. You can make predictions, and a year later people won't remember them.
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Often, the most enjoyable part of an activity is the anticipation.
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Question: So investors shouldn't delude themselves about beating the market? Answer: They're just not going to do it. It's just not going to happen.
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Money does not buy you happiness, but lack of money certainly buys you misery.
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Groups tend to be more extreme than individuals.
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There's a tendency to look at investments in isolation. Investors focus on the risk of individual securities.
Daniel Kahneman
