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Intuitive diagnosis is reliable when people have a lot of relevant feedback. But people are very often willing to make intuitive diagnoses even when they're very likely to be wrong.

Daniel Kahneman

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Daniel Kahneman
Age: 90
Born: 1934
Born: March 5
Economist
Psychologist
University Teacher
Tel Aviv
Israel
D Kahneman
Willing
Wrong
Diagnoses
Often
Diagnosis
Even
Reliable
Make
Feedback
People
Intuitive
Relevant
Likely

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Laziness is built deep into our nature.
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There's a very good reason for why economics developed the way it did, and that is that in many situations, the assumption that people will exploit the opportunities available to them is very plausible, and it simplifies the analysis of how markets will behave.
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That's one of the real dangers of leader selection in many organizations: leaders are selected for overconfidence.
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People exaggerate their confidence in their plans - something we call the planning fallacy... The existence of the plan tends to induce overconfidence.
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When people think of the outcomes of their decisions, they think much more short term than that. They think in terms of gains and losses.
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People who are cognitively busy are also more likely to make selfish choices, use sexist language, and make superficial judgments in social situations.
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Political columnists and sports pundits are rewarded for being overconfident.
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It's very easy for trusted companies to mislead naive customers, and life insurance companies are trusted.
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In essence, the optimistic style involves taking credit for successes but little blame for failures.
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The illusion that we understand the past fosters overconfidence in our ability to predict the future.
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Each additional day together is a gift. The end of the day means the end of hostilities, the recognition that the underlying shared values and commitment to the relationship trump the need for one last dig or self-righteous justification.
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There are domains in which expertise is not possible. Stock picking is a good example. And in long-term political strategic forecasting, it's been shown that experts are just not better than a dice-throwing monkey.
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We are very influenced by completely automatic things that we have no control over, and we don't know we're doing it.
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The premise of this book is that it is easier to recognize other people's mistakes than your own.
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It was always assumed I would be a professor. I grew up thinking it.
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I enjoy being active, but I look forward to the day when I can retire to the Internet.
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