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Intuitive diagnosis is reliable when people have a lot of relevant feedback. But people are very often willing to make intuitive diagnoses even when they're very likely to be wrong.

Daniel Kahneman

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Daniel Kahneman
Age: 90
Born: 1934
Born: March 5
Economist
Psychologist
University Teacher
Tel Aviv
Israel
D Kahneman
Likely
Willing
Wrong
Diagnoses
Often
Diagnosis
Even
Reliable
Make
Feedback
People
Intuitive
Relevant

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The amount of success it takes for leaders to become overconfident isn't terribly large.
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True intuitive expertise is learned from prolonged experience with good feedback on mistakes.
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I would not advise people to buy a car or house without making a list. You will probably improve your intuitions by making a list and then sleeping on it.
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Psychologists really aim to be scientists, white-coat stuff, with elaborate statistics, running experiments.
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If individuals are rational, there is no need to protect them against their own choices.
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We have associations to things. We have, you know, we have associations to tables and to - and to dogs and to cats and to Harvard professors, and that's the way the mind works. It's an association machine.
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I'm not a great believer in self-help.
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If owning stocks is a long-term project for you, following their changes constantly is a very, very bad idea. It's the worst possible thing you can do, because people are so sensitive to short-term losses. If you count your money every day, you'll be miserable.
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So your emotional state really has a lot to do with what you're thinking about and what you're paying attention to.
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The brain scientists are the wave of the future in the financial world. If you seek to maximize understanding, whether you're in academia or in the investment community, you'd better pay serious attention to them.
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Laziness is built deep into our nature.
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In essence, the optimistic style involves taking credit for successes but little blame for failures.
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We are very influenced by completely automatic things that we have no control over, and we don't know we're doing it.
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Friends are sometimes a big help when they share your feelings. In the context of decisions, the friends who will serve you best are those who understand your feelings but are not overly impressed by them.
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Negotiations over a shrinking pie are especially difficult because they require an allocation of losses. People tend to be much more easygoing when they bargain over an expanding pie.
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Establish a closing ritual. Know when to stop working. Try to end each work day the same way, too. Straighten up your desk. Back up your computer. Make a list of what you need to do tomorrow.
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Slow thinking has the feeling of something you do. It's deliberate.
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Groups tend to be more extreme than individuals.
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Most successful pundits are selected for being opinionated, because it's interesting, and the penalties for incorrect predictions are negligible. You can make predictions, and a year later people won't remember them.
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