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Intuitive diagnosis is reliable when people have a lot of relevant feedback. But people are very often willing to make intuitive diagnoses even when they're very likely to be wrong.
Daniel Kahneman
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Daniel Kahneman
Age: 90
Born: 1934
Born: March 5
Economist
Psychologist
University Teacher
Tel Aviv
Israel
D Kahneman
Wrong
Diagnoses
Often
Diagnosis
Even
Reliable
Make
Feedback
People
Intuitive
Relevant
Likely
Willing
More quotes by Daniel Kahneman
After a crisis we tell ourselves we understand why it happened and maintain the illusion that the world is understandable. In fact, we should accept the world is incomprehensible much of the time.
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If you can't take the time for a vacation right now, or even a night out with friends, put something on the calendar - even if it's a month or a year down the road. Then whenever you need a boost of happiness, remind yourself about it.
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Establish a closing ritual. Know when to stop working. Try to end each work day the same way, too. Straighten up your desk. Back up your computer. Make a list of what you need to do tomorrow.
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Money does not buy you happiness, but lack of money certainly buys you misery.
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Experts don't know exactly where the boundaries of their expertise are.
Daniel Kahneman
So your emotional state really has a lot to do with what you're thinking about and what you're paying attention to.
Daniel Kahneman
We are far too willing to reject the belief that much of what we see in life is random.
Daniel Kahneman
An investment said to have an 80% chance of success sounds far more attractive than one with a 20% chance of failure. The mind can't easily recognize that they are the same.
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The planning fallacy is that you make a plan, which is usually a best-case scenario. Then you assume that the outcome will follow your plan, even when you should know better.
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Groups tend to be more extreme than individuals.
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Hindsight bias makes surprises vanish.
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A general limitation of the human mind is its imperfect ability to reconstruct past states of knowledge, or beliefs that have changed. Once you adopt a new view of the world (or any part of it), you immediately lose much of your ability to recall what you used to believe before your mind changed.
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People who are cognitively busy are also more likely to make selfish choices, use sexist language, and make superficial judgments in social situations.
Daniel Kahneman
We're generally overconfident in our opinions and our impressions and judgments.
Daniel Kahneman
One thing we have lost, that we had in the past, is a sense of progress, that things are getting better. There is a sense of volatility, but not of progress.
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If individuals are rational, there is no need to protect them against their own choices.
Daniel Kahneman
People like leaders who look like they are dominant, optimistic, friendly to their friends, and quick on the trigger when it comes to enemies. They like boldness and despise the appearance of timidity and protracted doubt.
Daniel Kahneman
People just hate the idea of losing. Any loss, even a small one, is just so terrible to contemplate that they compensate by buying insurance, including totally absurd policies like air travel.
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Friends are sometimes a big help when they share your feelings. In the context of decisions, the friends who will serve you best are those who understand your feelings but are not overly impressed by them.
Daniel Kahneman
There are some conditions where you have to trust your intuition.
Daniel Kahneman