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Courage is willingness to take the risk once you know the odds. Optimistic overconfidence means you are taking the risk because you don't know the odds. It's a big difference.

Daniel Kahneman

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Daniel Kahneman
Age: 90
Born: 1934
Born: March 5
Economist
Psychologist
University Teacher
Tel Aviv
Israel
D Kahneman
Taking
Risk
Differences
Bigs
Odds
Means
Willingness
Take
Optimistic
Mean
Courage
Difference

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You should not take your intuitions at face value.
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Most people are highly optimistic most of the time.
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Employers who violate rules of fairness are punished by reduced productivity, and merchants who follow unfair pricing policies can expect to lose sales.
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Laziness is built deep into our nature.
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We're generally overconfident in our opinions and our impressions and judgments.
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People have little idea, by and large, of the investment world. They are convinced they have an advantage.
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The effort invested in 'getting it right' should be commensurate with the importance of the decision.
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All of us roughly know what memory is. I mean, memory is sort of the storage of the past. It's the storage of our personal experiences. It's a very big deal.
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Political columnists and sports pundits are rewarded for being overconfident.
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After a crisis we tell ourselves we understand why it happened and maintain the illusion that the world is understandable. In fact, we should accept the world is incomprehensible much of the time.
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Experts don't know exactly where the boundaries of their expertise are.
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You are more likely to learn something by finding surprises in your own behavior than by hearing surprising facts about people in general.
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Through some combination of culture and biology, our minds are intuitively receptive to religion.
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I used to hold a unitary view, in which I proposed that only experienced happiness matters, and that life satisfaction is a fallible estimate of true happiness.
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If you're going to be unreligious, it's likely going to be due to reflecting on it and finding some things that are hard to believe.
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